Premier League Betting: Stoke v Portsmouth

Premier League / Jaymes Monte / 20 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Stoke are developing a habit of scoring first in games but failing to come away with three points. Can they hold onto a lead this week?

Back Stoke to score first @ 1.75 in the Next Goal market;
Back Stoke to win @ 2.2 with a view to trade;
Lay Stoke @ 1.65 in Corners Match Bet market

Jaymes Monte believes that Stoke are the only side you can back with any real confidence here, but be prepared to trade your position as The Potters are the league's most fallible side when leading. Best Bet: Back Stoke to score first @ [1.75] in the Next Goal market

Stoke City are about as fashionable as a pair of tartan trousers whilst remaining as dependable as a pair of Levis 501's. And it is for that very reason that they are fast becoming a punters best friend.

Due to their apparent lack of glamour and thus a lack of market demand, their price is often a little bigger than it should be, especially when playing at The Britannia. Last season their home form provided the blueprint for their survival and this campaign has continued in much the same fashion. They have just two home defeats to their name - at the hands of Chelsea and Manchester United - and have scored the first goal of the game in all but one of their six home fixtures.

That means that the [2.2] available on the home side to win and the [1.75] on Stoke to score first (Next Goal market) have to be stand-out starting points for your betting options here.

However, Stoke will have to do the job without captain Abdoulaye Faye who is suspended following his red card against Hull. Either Leon Cort or Danny Higginbotham are likely step into the starting line-up to replace him dependent upon whether Tony Pullis decides to revert Robert Huth to his more natural centre back position or persist with him in a full back role.

For Pompey both Steve Finnan and John Utaka remain major doubts but Aruna Dindane appears to have shaken off the knock he picked up during their defeat against Blackburn - he played 82 minutes for Ivory Coast on Saturday.

Every week is a big week when you're marooned at the foot of the table but with Portsmouth's transfer embargo apparently due to be lifted in time for the January transfer window you can't help feel that it is getting perilously close to the do or die stage for Paul Hart. You have to think that if there is indeed some big money to spend on the south coast they will want to give it to a man they believe can at worst keep them in the Premier League, they are currently [1.7] to be relegated.

Back to the game at hand and the goals markets are suggesting a rather drab affair, it's [1.76] for under 2.5 goals and 0-0 is the third favourite score line at [10.5]. That's hardly surprising given the statistics - Portsmouth have the joint worst goal scoring record in the league with just ten whilst Stoke have managed only two more than that.

Although the [2.2] available on Stoke in the Match Odds market looks a good starting point, if you're backing it you should be prepared to trade in-play. No side have thrown away more points in the Premier League than Stoke who have lost out on 12 points from winning positions. But I wouldn't let that put you off too much given Pompey's struggles from set pieces against Blackburn last time out.

Stoke are the ultimate set piece specialist, or so we are led to believe. In fact only Fulham have won less corners so far this season whilst Portsmouth sit comfortably in the top half of the 'Corners For' league table (come on Portsmouth fans, I'm trying to find something for you to cling to). So my final recommendation of the day is to put your shirt (keep your tartan trousers firmly fastened) on a lay of Stoke in the Corners Match Bet market @ [1.65].