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Premier League Betting Previews: Blackburn Rovers

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Talk of a player mutiny does not sound promising and for some people Blackburn could be an outside bet for the drop.

Opening fixtures

The fixture list has been relatively kind to Paul Ince and an away win against Everton on the opening day (August 16) would be a great start. The Toffees have made no signings this summer and morale is said to be low amongst management and players. With Santa Cruz tipped to follow Bentley out of Ewood, Rovers could be depleted too but new signings will be keen to impress and if the Guvnor' can inspire his players they should have a chance. What price a mid-second half Robbie Fowler deadlock breaker defended stoutly by heroic keeping from a reborn Paul Robinson?

On August 23rd Rovers should look to take maximum points at Hull before heading down to London to face West Ham (August 30) for what could be a battle of the suprise relegation candidates.

Transfers

Paul Robinson could rebuild his career away from the bright lights and be back in England contention this time next year. Alternately he could be on the bench at Leicester City by then. His talent is undoubted but it is worrying that two Tottenham and two England manager's faith in him has withered. He needs to rediscover something of the fearless, athletic young stopper who broke into the Leeds team. Remember the San Siro?

Rovers will be pleased with the £15 million they received for David Bentley especially as fears increase that the Walker money is running out. The key will be to hold on to Roque Santa Cruz who hit 19 goals last season. But if the Paraguayan departs fans should remember that Blackburn did not suffer after Craig Bellamy, who had starred for them in his one season at the club, left for Liverpool in 2006.

Ince's management style is said to differ from that of his predecessor but one area where he will look to emulate Mark Hughes is in bringing in players under the radar who go on to star.

Key man

If he stays Santa Cruz will be pivotal but should he leave Rovers will look to Benni McCarthy to repeat his goalscoring heroics of two seasons ago. He was top scorer in 2006-07 with 24 goals and though he has only managed to add two since then this is largely down to an injury lay off. McCarthy's record for Rovers is an impressive 26 goals in 59 games. He should be up for it after signing an improved three-year deal in April.

Best bet

Back: Ince has a lot to live up to, after Hughes steered the club to seventh, tenth and sixth place finishes in the last three seasons. Talk of player disquiet at his training methods do not bode well and fans may have to content themselves with the type of progress which you have to look hard at to notice - the type achieved by Gareth Southgate at Middlesborough. This may well pay off in the long term, perhaps the season after this one, but for now backing Blackburn in the relegation market at [9.2] may not be a bad bet.

Lay: The Blackburn board are not a trigger happy lot and the fans will not get on Ince's back if things fail to get off to a good start. Ewood can be a fortress built on reduced ticket prices and the manager will be entitled to a honeymoon period because he has proved himself a strong character at lower division clubs and the only other serious candidates for the job were Sam Allardyce and Steve McClaren - both of whom would have appalled the Darwen End. Ince will be given time so lay him at [7.8] to be the first Premiership manager to be sacked in Betfair's managerial change market.