Premier League Betting: Big four feel the heat from mini-four

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 09 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"The draw in Manchester City v Arsenal is [3.5] to back and in Tottenham v Manchester United it is [3.55] to back. Based on the recent trends, those odds underestimate the chance of a draw."

As Manchester United prepare to meet resurgent Spurs and Arsenal go to higflying City, Andrew Atherley asks if we should expect the big four to drop more points this season. And will Chelsea's masterplan to stop Stoke work?

Putting a brave face on defeat is a common trait in the football world, and one example came from Liverpool midfielder Yossi Benayoun after his team had lost 3-1 to Aston Villa at Anfield last month.

Benayoun consoled himself with the observation that all of the big four teams would be vulnerable in matches against the next group of challengers - what we might call the 'mini big four' of Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Villa and Everton, all with ambitions to break into the Champions League places.

Liverpool had already lost at Tottenham on the opening weekend, and Benayoun argued that they would not be the only team to drop points in such matches this season. This weekend brings a good opportunity to test that argument when Tottenham host Manchester United and Arsenal go to Manchester City, so it is timely to consider how the big four might be expected to perform in these matches.

As a group, in the past 10 seasons, the big four have lost 27% of away games against the four next-best teams in the Premier League, yet there is support for Benayoun's view from last season's figures, which indicate that the gap was narrowing even then. The big four's win rate against the next-best four teams was the lowest in nine seasons, at 38%, and on the road the big four won just three of their 16 visits to the teams placed fifth to eighth in the table.

If those figures, and Liverpool's early results this season, are an accurate guide, laying the big four looks the way to go in such clashes, particularly on the road. In Saturday's matches, Manchester United are available to lay at [2.4] and Arsenal are [2.58] to lay.

The Asian handicap markets are worth a close look too. Tottenham are [2.35] to back at -0 on the Asian handicap against United, and [1.91] at 0&+0.5. Manchester City, meanwhile, are [2.12] to back at -0 against Arsenal.

And the draw is a big runner. Last season the draw was the dominant result in this type of match at a high 47% (56% with the big four away) and the previous season it was also high at 41% (43% away). Given that the gap appears to be narrowing between the big four and their nearest challengers, an increase in draws is no surprise.

The draw in Manchester City v Arsenal is [3.5] to back and in Tottenham v Manchester United it is [3.55] to back. Based on the recent trends, those odds underestimate the chance of a draw.

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Last season Luis Felipe Scolari, then Chelsea manager, apparently had a master plan to combat Rory Delap's dangerous throw-ins in their away game at Stoke City, which might come as a surprise considering the way in which Scolari's reign unravelled at remarkable speed.

In the end, we didn't get to find out Scolari's plan, because Delap didn't line up for Stoke and Chelsea ran out 2-0 winners, so it will be interesting to see how Chelsea cope with those long-throw bombs at the Britannia stadium on Saturday.

A key reason for the big difference in Stoke's points-gathering at home and away might be that they provide Delap with more opportunities to launch his throw-ins at the Britannia, and certainly their home stats with Delap in the team indicate what an effective weapon he is.

Since the start of last season Delap has started 19 home games and Stoke have won 12 (63%) and lost just three. In the four games when he hasn't started, or hasn't completed the entire game, Stoke haven't won and have failed to score in three, whereas when Delap has played for 90 minutes they have scored in 14 out of 16.

Chelsea were one of the teams who were so grateful for Delap's absence last season that they went home with all three points, but the stats indicate they will have a tougher time on Saturday. Stoke are a big [9.4] to win, considering they beat Arsenal, Villa and Tottenham from last season's top eight, and they look a solid bet to back at around [2.15] at +1.0 on the Asian handicap, which can be a losing bet only if Chelsea win by two goals.

The Chelsea clean sheet, often a good bet on the road, does not look so secure against the danger posed by Delap, and backing No to a Chelsea clean sheet at [1.99] looks a reasonable play judged against Stoke's scoring record.