Premier League / James Eastham / 16 October 2009 / Leave a comment

James Eastham is unconvinced by Carlo Ancelotti's league leaders - so he's backing Aston Villa to get something out of their Saturday lunchtime encounter. Best bet: Aston Villa v Chelsea draw @ [3.8].

Recommended bets: Back Aston Villa v Chelsea draw @ 3.3; back both teams to score @ 1.8; 1-1 and 2-2 correct scorelines @ 7.8 and 18.5 respectively (split your stakes).

Are Chelsea really as good as their league position suggests? I ask because, having watched several of their games this season, I remain unconvinced that their chances of winning the Premier League are as strong as their price of [2.62] would have you believe.

Am I the only one that's noticed a fragility about Chelsea's play? Yes, there were extenuating circumstances to their 3-1 defeat at Wigan (Petr Cech was sent off, and Wigan scored from the resultant penalty, just as Carlo Ancelotti's side was getting back into the game), but barely-deserved last-minute winners against Hull on the opening day and at Stoke on September 12 were most un-Chelsea like. Under Jose Mourinho and Avram Grant, Chelsea generally had those sorts of matches wrapped up well before the final moments.

Aston Villa have an excellent record in this fixture over the past decade: three wins, six draws and just a single defeat (admittedly last season) show the Midlanders know how to get at least a point out of this game. And since their opening-day defeat at the hands of Wigan (0-2), Villa have looked far more assured at home, beating Fulham (2-0) and Portsmouth (2-0) before earning a point against Manchester City before the international break (1-1).

The draw's my main selection at [3.8], because I've no doubt Villa ([5.1]) are good enough to pick up a point against Chelsea ([1.83]). The visitors will attract plenty of support but I cannot justify backing Ancelotti's side at odds-on away to top-six contenders.

1-1 at [7.8] and 2-2 at [18.5] are my preferred correct-score selections, although you may want to have a small saver on Chelsea winning 2-1. I simply don't see the visitors keeping a clean sheet; I know they did v Liverpool (2-0) a fortnight ago, but Villa's excellent attacking options and Chelsea's record so far this season (one clean sheet in three away games) suggest both teams will get on the scoresheet. Both teams to score is available at [1.8], with over 2.5 goals at [2.06] a more tempting option than under 2.5 goals at [1.91].

If you're not entirely convinced that Villa can get something out of the game, you can limit your losses by backing them with a +0.75-goal start on the Asian handicap at [1.84]. That way, you'll get half your stakes back if Villa lose by a single goal, and will only lose all your stakes should Chelsea triumph by two goals or more.

The usual suspects head up the anytime goalscorer market - Didier Drogba [2.75], Frank Lampard [3.6], Gabriel Agbonlahor [4.0], John Carew [4.5] and Emile Heskey [5.0]. For a slightly bigger price, consider Florent Malouda at [5.5]. The Guyana-born player is not a prolific finisher (10 goals in 59 Premier League appearances) but played really well in France's 3-1 midweek win over Austria so will be full of confidence if selected here.

* Aston Villa v Chelsea, Sky Sports 1, Saturday (12.45pm kick-off)