Premier League / Richard Walker / 30 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Richard Walker expects a proper old school North London derby unravel before our eyes on Saturday lunchtime with red cards, needle and plenty of goals with the [2.52] on over 3.5 goals looking the best bet of the match.

"Not that he’s the defensive type, but Spurs boss Harry Redknapp need only look at the Gunners’ last two home results to see what was left of teams deciding to play the sit-back and soak-it-up style. Blackburn Rovers lost 6-2 – and they only got two because they went two down and had to come out fighting – while Birmingham City perished 3-1."

Separated by only goal difference and a game in hand, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur - these two great rivals of north London - prepare to go at it once again on Saturday lunch-time...and we're entitled to expect a thriller!

Not that he's the defensive type, but Spurs boss Harry Redknapp need only look at the Gunners' last two home results to see what was left of teams deciding to play the sit-back and soak-it-up style. Blackburn Rovers lost 6-2 - and they only got two because they went two down and had to come out fighting - while Birmingham City perished 3-1.

So my best bet for this all-action lunch-time treat is to back over 3.5 goals at the understandably thinner-than-usual odds of [2.52]. For a more conservative approach, you'll find [1.6] the price on offer to support over 2.5 goals. Perhaps there's a trade-off somewhere in the middle?

The promise of goals doesn't mean we should expect another 4-4 draw - although Betfairians appear not to be taking too many chances with "any unquoted" the favourite at [5.1] in the correct score section. My ideas of the result are something like 3-2 Arsenal [30.0] or 3-2 Spurs [65.0]. I suggest that scores like 1-0 and 2-0 to Arsenal can be laid with some confidence, such is Tottenham's attacking prowess. The hosts have hit 29 goals in nine matches while Spurs have 21 from 10; this is unlikely to end goalless.

So who's going to get the goals? Well, Robin van Persie didn't let me down when I suggested he was a must-include last weekend at West Ham. With five goals from his nine Premier League starts so far, if around [6.0] doesn't appeal as first goalscorer, then anything above [2.5] to score at any time should be backed.

With Jermain Defoe suspended, the goalscoring burden falls between Robbie Keane and Peter Crouch with the former boasting five League goals too. At around [4.0] to score, I'd suggest he makes slightly greater appeal than Arsenal's Dutch striker. Crouch will be slightly longer in the anytime market, while a live outsider you might consider is Gunners' centre-half William Gallas with his noted prowess from set-pieces.

I do think it's fair to respect Arsenal's imperious home record so far; but let's not get carried away with it. Wigan, Portsmouth, Blackburn and Birmingham is not the toughest quartet to begin a Premier League campaign at The Emirates with. So I don't see the home team as quite the good things their match odds of [1.6] to back suggest. For me, with two attack-minded leaders, it's a lay day. I'll be laying the draw to a [4.5] liability, with perhaps just a little tickle on Spurs at a handsome [6.4] given this is a local derby.

There's been enough simmering between these two clubs in recent seasons to suggest a fire-cracker for Halloween. In this respect, I see some value in backing a red card. Priced at [3.85], it's not that much to ask of Mark Clattenburg to reach for the old top pocket at some point during the 90 minutes.

Another play I think is worth considering comes in the half-time/full-time market. Here, Arsenal/Arsenal would make you liable at [2.62] if you laid it and I suggest you do. In the heat of derby battle, results are rarely as simple as a straightforward home success. Draw/Arsenal [5.2] or even Spurs/Arsenal [27.0] are options you might consider in a section where the prices can often be fancy.

Betting.betfair.com's very own James Eastham sat down with Steve Claridge to give their own verdict on the best bets on offer on Betfair for this match. Click here to see the clip, produced by Bet Republic.

Tags: Arsenal fixtures, Arsenal odds, Jermain Defoe suspension, North London derby, Premier League fixtures, Premiership tips, Roin Van Persie