Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 27 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Ed Nicholson previews a key weekend of Premier League football, with two fierce local derbies to look forward to. Arsenal simply cannot afford to lose at Chelsea while Man United will be desperate to bring their nouveau riche neighbours back down a peg or two.

Chelsea v Arsenal

The media have quickly identified Arsenal's recent form as a crisis, despite the fact that they beat Man Utd less than three weeks ago. As a consequence I believe the Betfair prices are skewed too far towards a Chelsea victory this Sunday.

When a media over reaction occurs there's nearly always a value bet to be had by going against the crowd. But can we find an angle in the under/over 2.5 goals market?

Four of the last nine Stamford Bridge encounters have ended 1-1, with seven of the last fourteen ending in a draw. Last season's 2-1 Blues victory does not tell half the story, as Arsenal were holding onto their 59th minute 0-1 lead until Didier Drogba slotted home after 73 minutes, and then he scored again to give Chelsea three points in the 82nd minute. In fact, there were eight shots on target from the home team and five from the away side.

In short, recently these games have tended to be open games, and as we have previously analysed, games involving Arsenal and the other so-called Big Four sides (Chelsea, Man Utd, Liverpool) tend to produce significantly more goals than when any two of the other three play each other.

Recommendation

This game is more likely to be a draw than most Premiership games. I can't see a 0-0, as there is too much talent on display, and a goalless stalemate has only happened twice in the last 14 years. But it could easily be a 1-1. I don't think there's too much in the unders/overs options, but with a saver on the 1-1, I'd be happy to back the overs at slightly better than evens.

2pts Arsenal v Chelsea Over 2.5 goals @ [2.12]
0.33 Arsenal v Chelsea 1-1 @ [8.0]

Manchester City v Manchester Utd

This could be a classic. City have scored more goals at home (19) than any other Premiership side this season, while United will de desperate to beat City having been beaten both home and away by their rivals last season.

Three of the last four City derbies have been under 2.5 goal affairs, but this season Mark Hughes's side has entertained their fans with a flair unseen for many a year, with Robinho having netted on each of City's last four Eastlands matches.

Manchester United have been poor in front of goal away from home scoring just seven goals in seven Premiership games, and they failed to score in Europe again earlier this week. But as ever, they remain extremely hard to penetrate and they have conceded just six times on their travels this season in the league.

Recommendation

I would not be surprised with a City win, United victory or a draw. But I would be very surprised by a 0-0 and if one side does score, then the chances of it remaining 1-0 or 0-1, in my mind, is slim.

For City, no less than 86% of their matches this term have been over 2.5 goal affairs, while 100% of their Premiership home games have been over 2.5 goal encounters.

2pts Manchester City v Manchester Utd over 2.5 goals @ [1.81]
0.33 pt Manchester City v Manchester Utd 1-1 @ [7.8]

Wigan v WBA

Wigan in winter at home are interesting. Last season from December onwards, their pitch was awful, teams found it difficult to play football and as a consequence there were few goals scored. Bad weather and poor pitches bring sides closer together, and as a direct consequence lower scoring matches occur.

From December through to the middle of March, Wigan played nine Premiership matches at the JJB Stadium, and no less than 66.67% of them ended in under 3 goal games.

West Brom have scored just twice on their travels this term - no team has a worst record away from home in the Premiership - and they have picked up just one point from their last six matches.

Recommendation

These two have been involved in two low scoring contests at the JJB Stadium - a 1-0 success to each side, once in the Premiership and once in the Championship...and this has the look of a low scoring match too.

1pt Wigan v WBA Under 2.5 goals @ [1.82]