Betfair Official Blog

Premiership

Newcastle v Sunderland: Goals do not suit our North East correspondent

Click here to view market

Toon fan and betting.betfair man Oliver Bellwood on the Tyne Wear derby

Depending on whom you believe, the Premier League's title race is over while the Champions League and relegation places have already been decided. I don't personally subscribe to this view, but one I do subscribe to is that all three of the North East's Premier League teams will be present and correct again next season. Okay, that doesn't necessarily qualify me as the natural successor to Nostradamus, but nevertheless, I think it's the right call.

I never thought I'd be saying this, given the rollercoaster of emotions us Newcastle United followers have experienced this season, but with four games to go I am faced with something of an anticlimax. It might be controversial to say it, but I was extracting some sort of perverse pleasure from our relegation battle. I finally had a manager and a team I could really get behind and a bit of adversity sometimes brings out the best in people.

The fact remains, though, that our season is effectively over. All that remains is for KK and his coaching team to use the remaining games to evaluate the qualities, both technical and psychological, of their players in match situations. Then they can work out what they need to bring in for the next campaign. And I'm quite sure it's the same for Roy Keane and Sunderland. What they need is a game that matters; where there's something at stake, a game you're afraid to lose. What they need is a local derby. What's that you say? Oh, great.

Yes, indeed. At 1.30 pm tomorrow, broadcast live on Sky television, Roy Keane will take his Sunderland side to St James' Park to face Kevin Keegan's Newcastle. If any of the players think this is a canter towards their six weeks in Marbella, 52,000 baying Geordies (or 49,000 Geordies and 3,000 Mackems to be precise) will be making sure that they know this game is as important as any other this season.

Had this game been scheduled for three weeks ago, it could all have been so different of course. Both sides will be full of confidence after recent runs secured their league status and that, for me, suggests that they will be able to play in a more relaxed manner. I use the word 'relaxed' relatively speaking, of course, as Tyne Wear derbies are rarely things of beauty, and I can't see this one being much different.

The stats favour the Magpies quite heavily. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with the old enemy and their current manager has a 100% record in this fixture still intact from his first spell at the club. The last time Sunderland won at this venue was 2000, a headed goal from current chairman Niall Quinn being enough to take the bragging rights.

It must be said that this year's Sunderland is a classier vintage than the teams we have played in the intervening period. Derby have had to plumb new depths of helplessness to be in a position to overtake Mick McCarthy's Black Cats as the worst side the Premiership has seen. This year, though, I have genuine concerns about the threat posed by the visitors, marshalled as they are by a man who has some fond memories at this ground.

So, how does one go about betting on a game like this? Well I can tell you that, for once, I'll be able to stick to my vow of never betting on my own team. Despite a fine run of results, [1.9] for the Newcastle win is too short, particularly given the recent form of the opposition.

Here's an interesting one for you. The Newcastle clean sheet is currently backable at [2.7]. The Toon have had three clean sheets in their last four games, including a very creditable one away at Pompey. It's no mean feat to keep Defoe and Kanu at bay away from home, and with continuity of selection an important factor in defensive stability Newcastle should be unchanged. It's a teaser for sure.

My inspiration today comes from a friend in the City who, after a few too many foie gras lunches, has put on a little weight recently (quite a lot actually). As such, he went to get some new suits measured at his favourite tailor. While measuring the man's waist, the tailor looked up and said "over or under sir". The man, slightly confused, asked what he meant. "Well, sir," said the tailor, "you have arrived at a threshold moment in your life when you have to ask yourself this question, "Do I want my trousers fitted over or under my belly." I too am faced with this dilemma, over or under. In my case, it's over 2.5 goals, trading at roughly [2.0] on the exchange. My instinct is to lay.