Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 21 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Andrew Atherley crunches the numbers to find out exactly how many points per match the star duo of Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres is worth and how much Liverpool miss them when they're absent as Rafa Benitez's season looks to be falling apart.

"That is not to say that the problems don’t run deeper than that, because even with Gerrard and Torres in the team Liverpool have also lost at Tottenham, at home to Aston Villa and away to Fiorentina in the Champions League."

Liverpool's crisis is the dominant theme in the lead-up to Sunday's Anfield showdown with Manchester United, and there is some substance to the view that the absences of Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard have heightened Rafa Benitez's problems.

Separately, and collectively, Torres and Gerrard generate an average of around 2.2 points per game for Liverpool, whereas without them the average slips to around 1.9. The latter figure is still healthy, but clearly not good enough to sustain a title challenge. Liverpool have drifted to [15.5] to back in the Premier League Winner market, now behind [12.5] shots Manchester City.

It is rare for both players to be out at the same time, but the evidence so far this season is that Benitez doesn't have much of a Plan B when one or both of his main men are missing. In those circumstances, Liverpool have lost two out of two in the Premier League, as well as Tuesday's Champions League match against Lyon once Gerrard's enforced substitution meant they had to play the last 65 minutes without him and Torres.
That is not to say that the problems don't run deeper than that, because even with Gerrard and Torres in the team Liverpool have also lost at Tottenham, at home to Aston Villa and away to Fiorentina in the Champions League.

With their Champions League hopes hanging by a thread, Liverpool are [1.5] to back to be knocked out at the group stage in the Stage of Elimination market.

Even more worrying is the possibility that they might fail to qualify for next season's Champions League, now that there is real competition for the top four places in the Premier League from Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa. Alan Hansen voiced that previously unthinkable thought this week and Tuesday's setback might encourage more Liverpool layers at [1.9] in the Premier League Top 4 Finish market.

The Yes option in the New Top 4 market is now down to just [1.62] to back, largely as a result of Liverpool's problems, and Manchester City are [2.12] to back for a Top 4 Finish, which looks attractive given that they are ahead of Liverpool in the title betting.

As for Sunday's match, Liverpool are [3.05] to back in the current betting, with United [2.64]. Even though the difference with and without Gerrard and/or Torres is significant, the market could be overreacting and it is worth remembering that Liverpool started without both players in last season's 2-1 win at Anfield, though Gerrard helped turn the game after he came on with the scores level.

In this season of so few draws, a strange statistic has emerged concerning the three promoted clubs, and it should be of particular interest to in-play punters. The opening goal has been crucial in almost every one of their games, leading to a clear rule of thumb: wait for the first goal and then back whichever team has scored it.

Between them, Burnley, Wolves and Birmingham have conceded first in 16 games, losing 15 and drawing one. On the flipside, they have scored first 10 times, winning eight (with one draw and one defeat). Overall, backers of the first team to score would have collected 23 times out of 26 (88%).

That's well worth bearing in mind on Saturday when all three promoted teams are at home: Birmingham v Sunderland, Burnley v Wigan and Wolves v Aston Villa. The shortest-priced of the six teams in the early betting is Villa at [2.2], which suggests scope for backing the opening-goal scorers at reasonable odds, particularly if a goal is scored early on.

Tags: Champions League betting, Fernando Torres, Liverpool FC, Premier League betting, Steven Gerrard, Torres injury