Football Stats: Bolton v Newcastle

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 27 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

They're not exciting, they're not glamorous but Bolton do get the job done at home against bottom-half finishers, or so the stats say. Bettorlogic talk us through this one. Best bet: Back Bolton to win @ 2.1.

Match Odds

Although Bolton's home record under Gary Megson is not immediately impressive -- W11-D6-L10 -- the majority of their defeats in his time have come against the Big Four, with the Trotters winning half of their games (W10-D6-L4) against the rest of the league. Indeed, their only other two losses at home this season were against Wigan (7th) and Everton (6th) and last season the losses were at home to Portsmouth (finished 8th) and Blackburn (7th). So, against bottom-half finishers and this season's bottom half they are unbeaten with a W7-D4-L0 record.

Newcastle's away record against non-Big Four teams over the same period is almost a mirror image (W4-D6-L11) and, similarly, their record against teams in the middle third (7th to 14th) is almost the opposite of Bolton against the bottom half (W1-D2-L7). Their longer-term record against such teams is also poor, having lost nearly 70% of the games (W2-D4-L13).

Recent form also points to a home win, with Bolton recording victories in five of their last six games against the current bottom half, while Newcastle's win at West Brom stopped a run of three straight away defeats. All of which suggests a Bolton win price of [2.1] should be snapped up.

Correct score

The goalless draw (5/20) is the only score that stands out in Bolton's home games against non-Big four teams under Megson and, despite losing only four times, the 1-0 loss is the only other score to occur more than twice in that sample.

Four of Newcastle's last five defeats have been by a 2-1 score line (all at middle-third teams). That score is easily the most common in the Magpies longer-term (since 06/07) away record against such teams, accounting for six of their 13 defeats (in 19 games) -- with the 3-1 and 1-0 losses (both 3/19) the only others to crop up with any regularity -- and appears to offer some value at [10.0].

HT/FT

Bolton have a remarkable first half record against non-Big Four sides (W19-D32-L3), with two of their half-time deficits coming in Sammy Lee's five games in charge. The W/W has been the most prevalent HT/FT result under Megson (6/20), though it is closely followed by the D/D (5/20 -- all 0-0) and D/W (4/20). Of their 11 games against bottom-half sides in that sample, five were W/Ws, with the four 0-0s making D/D the only other consideration.

The D/L (11/40) has been slightly more common for Newcastle at non-Big Four teams over the last three seasons than the L/L (10/40). This is also the case against teams in the middle third of the league (seven D/L and six L/L), although this season that is four L/Ls and one D/L, so Bolton/Bolton ([3.45]) is probably the better option on balance.

Bolton clean sheet

Newcastle's goalless draw with Everton was only the fifth time they have failed to score all season -- only Man Utd (two) have done so less often. Also, since the start of last season, they have scored in all but five of their 25 games at non-Big four teams.

Bolton have kept the fewest clean sheets in the league this season (four, 3/13 at home), although under Megson they have managed seven in their 11 games at home to the bottom half.

Newcastle clean sheet

The Trotters failed to score in four of those 11 games against the bottom half and have done so in half of their games this season -- a league-high 13 of 26. Newcastle's recent away record does little to encourage hope of pushing that percentage over 50 though with the Magpies conceding two or more in 10 of their last 12 at non-big Four sides, albeit keeping clean sheets in the other two games.

Best bets

Back Bolton win @ [2.1]
Back Bolton/Bolton @ [3.45]
Back Bolton 2-1 @ [10.0]