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Everton v West Ham: I've seen far worse 1.8 shots than Everton

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Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco tells us why the stats point towards a low-scoring Everton win in which he's expecting another big performance from Joleon Lescott

For years people in the world of football have been campaigning for an alternative to the drama of a penalty shootout. Suggestions have included playing extra-time until a goal is scored (which could bring a whole new meaning to the term "sudden death" if the strikers were on an off-day) and Chris Waddle once suggested that the solution was to reduce the number of players on the pitch to seven which would mean more space and therefore increase the chances of a "golden goal" being scored (provided of course the GG was re-introduced).

Despite watching my team Everton crash out on penalties to Fiorentina in the UEFA Cup last week, I'm still very much in favour of them and in an era of playing just the one up front, two holding midfielders, playing for 0-0s in the first leg of the Champions League and UEFA Cup knock-out stages, I think football needs all the drama it can get.

Fatigue and disappointment from that defeat led to Everton putting in arguably their worst performance of the season in a 1-0 defeat to Fulham at Craven Cottage. As it happens, (having been at the game) I don't think they necessarily deserved to lose it, they just failed to convert one of their few chances whilst Brian McBride took his.

David Moyes's side will feel a lot better about being back at Goodison Park for Saturday's tea-time kick-off at home to West Ham. Prior to the Fulham loss, they racked up four Premiership wins in a row including tricky away trips to Sunderland and Manchester City, whilst their opponents on Saturday lost an incredible three matches in a row by the same 4-0 scoreline before saving some face with a 2-1 last week against a Blackburn side who are clear of relegation but have probably accepted they're not fighting for Europe either at this stage of the season. In addition to that a quick look at the www.physioroom.com website tells me that key players Etherington, Bowyer and Upson are all injury doubts for the match whilst Dyer, Davenport and Bellamy won't be returning anytime soon.

For the Toffees, it will be touch-and-go whether Andy Johnson will be fit and the same applies to Tim Cahill, though I think the Australian is far less of a loss. I've always been of the opinion that when he's not scoring he adds very little to the side and a glance at his stats that show a return of one goal in his last twelve appearances tells me he definitely isn't scoring! The 1.8 on an Everton win isn't a price worth getting ecstatic about but one probably worth getting mildly excitable over and I've seen far worse [1.8] shots than that.

On the goals front, 8 from Everton's last 10 Premiership matches have ended in under 2.5 goals largely due to the performances of "jack-of-all-trades-master-of-most" Joleon Lescott and the strong partnership of Yobo and Jagielka at the heart of the defence which have brought plenty of clean sheets. Yes, West Ham had that awful run where they leaked 12 in 3 matches but I expect things to return to some sort of normality and I can't move away from Everton's recent record of low-scoring matches so I'd rather take the [1.81] on under 2.5 than the [2.18] on overs.

On the correct score market, the 1-0 Everton win at [7.2] or the 2-0 at [8.8] look decent options for those who like me fancy Everton to keep a clean sheet (a [2.38] chance) in a win for the Toffees.

When the "to score" market gets some liquidity into it, watch out for a price around the [7.0] on the aforementioned Joleon Lescott (8 goals already this season) to get another. His chances will be particularly improved if he's given half an hour upfront like he got at Fulham last Sunday when Moyes had no other striking options and Everton were chasing the game. Dean Ashton will as ever represent West Ham's best chance of nicking one so a price around [3.2] may be worth having a small investment in after looking good last weekend and scoring