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Early results could spark buying

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Before the transfer window closes, the long running sagas will be resolved and there's likely to be some suprises. Both will affect the betting, says Nik Wardle.

The summer transfer window closes in under two weeks and there's likely to be enough trading to affect some of the betting. The long-running transfer sagas will come to an end either way (till January at least) and there could be some last minute surprises.

With Gareth Barry and Xabi Alonso both playing in European competition last week, it's unlikely the pair will move - but not impossible. Benitez is aware that Barry's versatility as well as his talent could be a huge plus for Liverpool's title challenge but the fee still appears to be the sticking point - it appears largely because the Liverpool board won't release the cash but also because Barry is overvalued, not that you can blame Villa, of course. I don't feel there's much between the two players as central midfielders - Alonso is the better passer but Barry gets forward more - but Barry's versatility and his nationality gives him more value.

Arsenal are in the hunt for an experienced central midfielder and Alonso would fit the bill. His technique means he'd definitely fit in at the club but Arsene Wenger may feel he's overvalued at £15 million. It's likely a bid for Alonso would be swiftly followed by a Liverpool bid for Barry - so we'll see if anyone blinks first. Having Alonso at Arsenal would probably shorten their odds for the title, currently at [7.0] and likewise Barry at Liverpool, currently at [9.4].

With injuries to forwards and after only drawing against Newcastle it appears Man United need to be in the market for a forward. Dimitar Berbatov fits the bill but, as with Barry, the fee is the sticking point. Depending on which newspaper you read, Spurs value the Bulgarian at anything between £22-32 million. It would suit both clubs for the transfer to happen ASAP - because of Man United's injury problems and so Spurs can crack on with finding a happier replacement. Most expected Berbatov to leave Spurs this summer, so I don't see their odds of finishing 5th of [4.0] changing much. Whoever they buy, it is now unlikely to be Arshavin.

Berbatov's price of [17.5] to finish top scorer would decrease if he did move, so it may be worth betting on him now if you expect the transfer to go ahead.

Two clubs keen to improve their squad are Everton and Sunderland. David Moyes will need to add a bit more quality to his squad in order to not get overtaken by the likes of Spurs and Villa. Moutinho has been linked with them all summer but he's currently too pricey for Everton. Tiago appears the more likely signing, on a season-long loan from Juventus. I fear there's a possibility things could get a little 'stayed' at Everton this season, so, unless they snap up a couple of quality players, I wouldn't back them to finish 5th at [9.0].

Roy Keane has been in the market for a left-back and a striker all summer and now appears to have filled one of those positions with the loan signing of Djibril Cisse. He is a bit hit-and-miss but has the pace to worry defences and, if he stays fit, could get double figures for The Black Cats in the Premier League. They do need more firepower as, even with Kenwyn Jones fit, he'd be unlikely to make double figures. I wouldn't bother betting on Sunderland to go down at [6.4].

Those who backed Man City to finish 5th, currently at [13.5], probably wished they hadn't now. At the start of the summer, back in the days when they were bidding for Ronaldinho, it appeared City would be the biggest spenders. Mark Hughes is ending the transfer window hoping the likes of Stephen Ireland and Vedran Corluka don't get sold behind his back.

Of the others, Chelsea's odds of reclaiming the title will shorten if they capture Robinho, Blackburn can forget about European football if Roque Santa Cruz leaves and Fulham should surely try to fend off interest in Jimmy Bullard to boost their hopes of staying up.

A bad result for any team this weekend could spark them into panic buying, so results are vital even at this early stage of the season. The transfer market always revolves around the knock-on effect, so if one club starts buying and selling, others will too.