Champions League Betting: United's moment of truth is too close to call

Premier League / Robert Hughes / 14 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

As Porto proved at Old Trafford last week, underestimating the continent's less glamourous clubs is a big mistake. Robert Hughes explains why the likes of Barca et al are not the only threats to English clubs in the Champions League.

When Manchester United and Arsenal drew Porto and Villarreal respectively in the Champions League quarter-finals, the general perception was that they both had an 'easy' route to the semi-finals.

We have become rather spoilt by the recent success of English clubs in the Champions League, to the point where unless a team belongs to a select group of 'glamour' clubs, they tend to be portrayed by the media as pushovers. Not only is this unrealistic, it also means judging a team according to their reputation and prestige, rather than the quality of their players and manager. The likes of Real Madrid, AC Milan and Bayern Munich will always be seen as difficult opponents, regardless of how good they actually are at the time. For example, Porto have so far given Man Utd a much sterner test than Real Madrid gave Liverpool - and it's worth remembering that they have won the European Cup as many times as Barcelona, and more recently than Real Madrid.

Of these two under-rated teams, Porto are obviously in the stronger position going into the second leg, with two away goals meaning that a 0-0 or 1-1 draw will be enough for them to progress. Many observers were surprised by their performance at Old Trafford, and it is true that it's unusual (until recently at least) to see United put under so much pressure at home.

However, Porto have won their domestic league for the last three seasons and are currently occupying top spot again, so they are a team that is used to winning week in, week out. All they did last Tuesday was bring the same confidence to their performance on the European stage, rather than being overawed by their supposedly more illustrious opponents.

United are in a difficult position because they have to attack (as only a victory or a high-scoring draw will keep them in the competition), but they will be wary of committing too many men forward as Porto look very dangerous on the break. The speed and movement of their forwards seemed to take Man Utd by surprise last week, and Argentine striker Lisandro Lopez, who has scored four goals in the competition so far, looks a real threat.

Porto's two away goals and United's recent below-par performances (which seem to be down to fatigue as much as anything else), would seem to point to an aggregate victory for the Portuguese side. However, as they have shown in recent matches, United are always capable of scoring, no matter how badly they're playing - so it really does seem too close to call. Porto are currently [2.0] on Betfair to get through, with United at [1.99]. On the night, a home victory can be backed at [3.85], with the draw available at [3.55] and a United victory at [2.16].

Having conceded an away goal, Villarreal clearly have a more difficult task, but Arsenal should be careful not to underestimate them. Although they have nothing like the historic success of Porto, Villarreal have been one of the strongest sides in Spain over the last few years. They reached the semi-finals of this competition in 2006, finished second in La Liga last season, and in their first round group were unbeaten in their two games against Man Utd. In that 2006 semi-final they pushed Arsenal all the way before losing 0-1 on aggregate, and they dominated the first half of the game last week, before letting their opponents back into the tie in the second half.

However, they will be without their captain and key player Marcos Senna, scorer of their goal in the first leg. They also have injury doubts over fellow midfielders Cani and Mati Fernandez, which may mean a start for former Arsenal hero Robert Pires. Their main goal threat will come from former Man Utd reserve striker Giuseppe Rossi, who has 23 goals in 50 appearances since joining the club in 2007.

Emanuel Adebayor's equalising goal last week means Arsenal are [1.26] to progress, with their opponents currently [4.5]. With the home side not needing to attack and their opponents' midfield weakened, a draw on the night looks quite possible, and this outcome can be backed at [4.4].