Bettorlogic's Injuries and Suspensions Column: Spurs will miss Lennon

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 30 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Tottenham’s record against the Big Four without Lennon is terrible - losing 11 of 15 matches since 2005/06."

Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing in the Premier League this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Arsenal v Spurs

Aaron Lennon

Spurs travel to the Emirates Stadium without a number of key first team players as Aaron Lennon, Jermain Defoe and Luca Modric are all unavailable. While Defoe has enjoyed an excellent start to the season, his impact on Spurs' results has been minimal since rejoining them last January - the Lilywhites averaging 1.77 points per game in the 13 matches he's played compared to 1.80 in the 15 he's missed.

However, Spurs look likely to struggle in the absence of Lennon. The England winger has played 35 and missed 13 matches since the start of last season, Spurs winning 46% of matches (PPG 1.54) when he has featured - and just 31% (PPG 1.23) when he hasn't. This has been largely due to Spurs' goals scored falling from 1.43 per game with Lennon to 1.23 without him.

Moreover, Tottenham's record against the Big Four without the England winger is terrible - losing 11 of 15 matches since 2005/06 - earning just 0.40 points per game - while with him they have lost just eight of 20 matches at 0.90 points per game. With signs pointing to continued Arsenal dominance over their local rivals, they may have to wait till after the break to impose themselves - nine of the Spurs' 15 matches played against the Big Four without Lennon have been tied at half-time, with six of the 11 defeats being draw/Spurs' loss doubles.

Arsenal are priced in at [1.61] to win the match and while that looks about right, there looks to be greater value in the half-time/full-time market where Draw/Arsenal can be backed at [5.2].

Round-up

Man Utd v Blackburn

Blackburn midfielder Vincent Grella looks set to fail in the race to be fit to play Man Utd this weekend. In the 16 matches that the Australian international has played since joining Blackburn, they have a very respectable record of five wins and five defeats, averaging 1.31 points per game. Without Grella, Rovers have lost 17 of 29 matches including 11 of 15 on the road. Furthermore, they've conceded just over two goals a game when Grella doesn't start, compared to just 1.25 when he's played and have failed to score in six of the last nine away matches he has missed.

United should win this match comfortably, and the Asian handicap price of [1.96] for United -2.0 goals should be worth following, although the [1.75] for the home clean sheet also looks good value.

Sunderland v West Ham

Scott Parker is out once again for The Hammers after picking up another red card against Arsenal last weekend in his first match back from a previous suspension. Since the start of last season, the former Chelsea player has played 35 and missed 12 matches he's watched his team lose over half the matches that he's missed, West Ham earning less than a point per game without him (W3-D2-L7). The reason for this can be found in the goals scored column - West Ham with Parker averaging 1.26 per game and without him - 0.75 - a 40% decrease.

Sunderland are in great form at home and with Parker out they look good value at [2.04].