Bent can dent Arsenal's Top 4 chances

Premier League / David Croft / 31 August 2007 / Leave a Comment

The BBC's David Croft looks at why this can be the most open race for fourth spot in years

Before this season kicked off I spoke to many Tottenham fans on my BBC London 94.9 show, most of whom were quietly confident that this was the year that their team would break into the top 4. A common theme centred around how important it was that they had kept hold of Dimitar Berbatov and added quality with Darren Bent, which in the fan's opinion meant that they now had the best strike force in the Premier League.

Spurs fans haven't been quite so confident in the few weeks; it's amazing what back to back defeats do for morale, but Martin Jol's men were back on form against Derby and unlucky to lose at Old Trafford. This weekend I expect them to bounce back with another win against Fulham. After that it's Arsenal at home. Should Spurs win that I expect the fans to be ringing up once more with the their top 4 predictions, in a key game as it may also provide a clue as to the top 4 merits of Arsenal who look the most vulnerable. So if you've got the Tottenham fever then take the 6.4 available on Betfair now in the Top 4 Finish market, it might not be there in three weeks time.

Looking at that Top 4 Finish market it's clear that Betfair customers believe Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal are a shoe-in, and there's no value whatsoever in backing the four in this market. But I honestly believe that Spurs could muscle their way into a Champions League place by the end of the season, especially now that the nonsense regarding Martin Jol's future is over and out of the way, I can't believe the club were seriously thinking of replacing him, but then I can't believe a lot of things Premier League clubs get up to. So that 6.4 looks tempting to me.

The Premier League is a lot more open this season so we could well see the traditional top 4 struggle at times. Clubs have had access to more money through the new TV deal, money that has allowed Everton for instance to spend over £11 million on Yakubu this week. This man by the way is second only to Thierry Henry in the Premier League goalscoring charts over the past four seasons and a fair bet to carry on scoring at his new club. Coupled with the return of Thomas Gravesen in the heart of the midfield, it gives Everton two key signings, maybe then their price of 13 for a top 4 finish is now worth having, look for the omens as well, wasn't Gravesen a major part of the Everton team the last time they finished 4th.

Sandwiched in between Spurs and Everton are Newcastle. Big Sam got off to a brilliant start against his old club on the opening day, but they've been held to draws by Aston Villa and Middlesbrough since. Nice to see Michael Owen score in midweek and if he stays fit then that could be the key to a top 4 challenge. Expectation will be massive on Tyneside for Big Sam to deliver, but I don't think he has the squad yet to bring Champions League football to the Toon Army. The squad is peppered with good players, but not great players, and who did they bring in this summer? Alan Smith, the Brazilian Cacapa, Mark Viduka, Geremi and Jose Enrique from Villareal. I may be proved wrong but Geremi aside that's not the class of player needed for Newcastle to make the leap forward. Lay them at 9.6 if you can, sorry Newcastle fans but I can't see you in the top 4 this year. But both Spurs and Everton to me have the potential and the value to join the top 4 which this year isn't by any means a four-horse race.