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Arsenal v Reading: Reading in the Hunt for vital points to stay up

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Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch looks at where Arsenal's season went wrong but thinks that with the pressure off at the Emirates, three points for the home side will be virtually a formality

A friend of mine who reads my articles, recently commented that the thing he enjoys most about them is the way I crowbar references to Tottenham into everything I write.

This disturbed me somewhat, especially as I hate the way that Russell Brand's Guardian column is always about West Ham. I'd thought that the only thing that I had in common with the daftly coiffured lothario is the heroin addiction, but upon reflection, perhaps my friend does have a point.

So I resolved to keep the Tottenham references to a minimum this week, but then came my assignment for this week... a preview of the Arsenal v Reading game, in which I will inevitably have to explore quite where Arsenal's season went wrong. And of course, as hard as I try, the only words that come to mind are 'five' and one'.

This weekend Arsenal will be trying to snap out of their malaise, when they host relegation-threatened Reading. It should make an interesting encounter, as Arsenal effectively have very little to play for now, whilst Reading are fighting for their lives. But really this should have been a vital match for the Gunners, in their bid for the Premier League. So where did it all go wrong?

As pleasing as it would be to think that Arsenal's misery spiralled from a certain semi final defeat, in truth it was an accumulation of things. The squad always looked a bit threadbare and this was especially apparent during the African Nations Cup. Wenger has conceded that he made a mistake in not entering the transfer market in the January window and indeed, actually weakened his squad when he let Diarra go to Portsmouth. Diarra is not just a very good midfielder, but also is handy at right back. How Wenger could have done with him in this position in recent weeks.

Wenger's reluctance to spend big is puzzling. It has been cited that the only manner that he can get his team playing his way, is to buy them young and then mould them in a way that no big name player would be willing to adapt to. But this argument forgets the fact that Wenger inherited a big name player in Denis Bergkamp when he first took over and he certainly looked at home in Arsenal's system.

To me, it seems like Wenger is only willing to win on his own terms and if they fail, he has the convenient fallback of not having spent as much as those around them. It's been four years without a trophy now and despite all that Wenger has achieved, you wonder in what position he'd be at the end of next season, if that run stretched to five years.

The injury to Eduardo was another big turning point. The Croatian/Brazilian had just started to hit top form and Arsenal have certainly missed his eye for goal, especially as Adebayor's goals dried up towards the end of the season. The horrific nature of the injury seemed to affect the mental stability of the team, which was not helped by the pathetic theatrics of William Gallas, after the final whistle at Birmingham.

Meanwhile, Reading have struggled this season, having over achieved in their mid table finish of last year. They have missed the energy of Steve Sidwell, which must be particularly galling considering that he's been exerting very little energy whilst on the Chelsea bench. Last season also saw a ready supply of goals from Kitson, Lita and Doyle, which has not been repeated..

Reading are [5.6] to be relegated, but I think they'll be safe. After the Arsenal game, all of their fixtures are winnable, especially the final day match against Derby. Bolton will really struggle without Kevin Davies and I feel that Fulham have left themselves with too much to do.

I reckon that Arsenal will respond to the lack of pressure now on them and win at [1.36] with Reading [12.5] and the draw [5.4]. There could be goals in this one and the [1.71] for over 2.5 looks tempting. However, I'd avoid the 5-1 in the correct score market. Only very weak teams get beaten by this margin.

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