Odds on a Stevenage win carry on being wide of the mark

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 27 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football (Gary Boswell has been a non-league football betting specialist since 1999 and was the betting correspondent for the Non-League paper-2001-2006. He was a close season transfer coup for the new international publication NonLeague Today and also signed to write for Betfair at the end of the 06/07 season).

This weekend's attempts by Boswell to argue the case for a shock result (likely prices in brackets):

Crawley (1.66) v Altrincham (6.0)

If you saw the Red Devils on Setanta Tuesday night, you'll be wondering how on earth they managed to lose a game they dominated throughout. Typical Crawley. This season has been all about Guy Madjo who tops the golden boot table. If he scores, Crawley waltz on. Snuff him out as Ebbsfleet did and the penetration is lacking. They were swarming forward like ants after the sugar but with Madjo blunted, they never really got a good shot on goal. And then they concede....Altrincham have been woeful defensively six times out of ten this season but are coming in on the back of their first win and have managed their current points haul despite regular concedes. Potts, Little and Owen do present a bit of menace going forward and I reckon if they can learn from what they saw on the telly and frustrate Madjo and his fellow devils, an Alty shock is not beyond the bounds. They have notoriously notched two or three per season in their last three years of bottom of the table struggle and they are always worth looking out for because of the price you get. Six out of ten on the Boswell possible shockometer!

Grays (3.5) v Stevenage (2.25)

I've said all I need to say about the Non-League's traditional talking horse but it still amazes me how the oddsmakers rate Borough so highly. Here they are on the back of two defeats and six goals conceded with a tough trip to Justin Edinburgh's Essex boys and yet, they are still a screaming fav! Yes, they are playing creative and good to watch football against the lesser lights but Grays are no back number as they proved at Torquay on opening day. This will be a tall order for Mark Stimson's troops with confidence dented. Physical football not their strength and I fancy Edinburgh to put out an all muscle strategy on Saturday so that another Lay on the Borough at skinny prices gets 10/10 on the Bozometer!

Northwich(3.0) v Woking(2.6)

Second guessing where the strugglers get their first win is a hobby of mine but the Vics have got me stumped this year! They are so woeful at the back that a season without a win is a possibility! I'm looking at this game though because Woking have an incredible draw record this season - or put another way - are the Blue Square team least likely to win outside of the bottom four! Are the Vics going to notch one at last? Not something to bet on. A mere 2/10 on the Bozometer although a back on the draw or a lay on the Cards could be considered.

Torquay(1.33) v Droylsden(12.0)
I'd love to think the Bloods were going to get their first win at that price but even Rumpole of the Bailey would struggle to make a positive case here. A team at 1.33 is always Layable in Boz's book with so little liability and Torquay are still not my idea of a top of the table team with their ability to ship goals at the back as they proved by letting in four at Histon. Denham and Banim can create menace for the Bloods too and have been holding their own at the new level. Trouble comes in defence for Droylsden. Simply abysmal. Sills,Phillips and Zebroski should have a field day. Can't see any reason why not. Could be 8-2 or something like that but that would be an achievement for the Bloods at the minute. 1 out of a 100 on the Bozometer and generous at that.

Oxford(1.66) v York(5.0)

The Minstermen have dropped the dire goalie and kept a clean sheet on Saturday more in line with last season's fortress defensive record. Worth keeping an eye on them on Setanta Thursday night. If the defence impresses again, I'll have this Sunday game high on my possible shockometer as the bald eagle's boys still look a shadow of their last season selves.