Non-league / Gary Boswell / 09 October 2009 / 1 Comments

Betfair joins in at this Third Qualifying Round of the FA Cup and The Boz sets sail on his annual cruise through the potential shocks in an attempt to land a level stakes profit in every round. Got as far as Third Round Proper last season. Aiming to go all the way to Wembley this year!

"One of my big observation pointers at this time of year is to look for a side that has got itself inexplicably ousted from the FA Cup already and thus has the chance to enhance its impressive league position whilst all the surrounding opposition are diverted by the lure of the FA Cup cash."

GOALKEEPING PROBLEMS SET TO PULL THE PLUG ON BATH?

Just a single candidate on Saturday in the shape of opposition to Blue Square South strugglers Bath City, who can be laid at a price of around [1.7] as they travel to Zamaretto South & West basement boys Bishop's Cleeve, beset by goalkeeping problems. Big man Steve Perrin is reputed to be out with a serious strain gained in the game at Newport's Spytty last weekend. Potential class keeper Ryan Robinson - signed from Forest Green Rovers in the summer - is still sidelined and yet to start a game. Rumours are that the groundsman has been asked to don his gardening gloves to keep goal for the Romans!

The Villagers, whose ground nestles in the beautiful surrounds of Cheltenham Racecourse, knocked out Blue Square South opposition last round in the shape of Weymouth, who they soundly thrashed 3-0 with goals by the nobly named duo of Gascoyne and Slack!

Bath can't be said to be as poor as Weymouth are this season but they are no great shakes either.There is definitely the whiff of a shock in the air with the possibility of a midweek replay back at Twerton Park at the very least!

One of my big observation pointers at this time of year is to look for a side that has got itself inexplicably ousted from the FA Cup already and thus has the chance to enhance its impressive league position whilst all the surrounding opposition are diverted by the lure of the FA Cup cash. £7,500 to the winners of the ties in this round. One side that won't be collecting are Blue Square North leaders Droylsden who got themselves knocked out by FC Halifax last round. They thus play this Saturday's only BSN league game at Harrogate's Wetherby Road and get a chance to open up a five point lead at the top if they win it.

Looks a formality at first glance with Town an unusual basement candidate this season. Their only three wins have, however, come at home and last weekend's debutant Trevor Benjamin bagged a brace at Northwich suggesting that they might just be about to turn their season round. With Dave Pace's Bloods also noticeably at the top because of their form at the Butchers Arms - away form just two wins from six - you could argue that [1.8] a Bloods win was way too short and poor value.

Against that is the astonishing +20 goal difference from 12 games with +2 on the road. Add that to the chance of going five points clear at the top this weekend, the strange but appropriate exit from the FA Cup two weeks ago and a ropey Harrogate defence who are -11 this season and it is still a bet worth placing for me.

Final punt is a return to my draw predictions and this week's top dollar in the shape of Chester City versus Rushden and Diamonds in the Blue Square Premier. Jim Harvey has taken over at Chester and will want to get off to an unbeaten start. No draws at The Deva so far this season which is a stat in the 'one has to come up soon' category. Rushden & Diamonds have drawn their last four out of seven away games and with only two goals in the last five and Tomlin suspended, strikes may be at a premium here. Only eleven in fourteen games all season for Chester. Under 2.5 goals would not be an unwise way to play but I'll stick with the match draw price at a tempting [3.6]

THE BOZ'S BEST THREE BETS FOR THE WEEKEND:

LAY BATH CITY at [1.7] or shorter against Bishop's Cleeve in the FA Cup
BACK DROYLSDEN at [1.8] or longer against Harrogate Town
BACK the CHESTER-RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS draw at [3.6] or longer

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -1.91 to level stakes for the 09/10 season.

Tags: Bath City, FA Cup betting, FA Cup odds, football tips, Non League betting