Non-league / Gary Boswell / 14 November 2007 / 3

Non-League expert Gary Boswell looks at the headline-grabbing stories this week concerning Oxford Utd and Ebbsfleet, who ironically play each other on Saturday

For those unsure whether there is a God and, more importantly, whether or not he likes football, take note of the portents that have pitted Oxford and Ebbsfleet against each other this weekend.

That fixture was decided months ago and it makes you wonder whether simple coincidence could throw together the two sides that have dominated the news in the world of non-league football this week.

What stronger evidence of omnipotence can one need?

First the Us legendary manager Jim Smith pays the price for his failure to steer his troops back into the football league despite the size and support the club engenders.

On his way out, he grumbles about how the world of modern technology and 'internet democracy' have taken all the fun out of a job he has dedicated his life to i.e. football management.

Quickly followed by the news that Liam Daish is no longer to be called the manager of Ebbsfleet (he will be re-titled Head Coach) as the football club becomes the test case for democratic ownership (and more radically, team selection!) as the Internet company Myfootballclub purchase 51% of the shares.

Football has been rocked by the news, although those in non-league are less rocked, familiar as they are with supporter owned clubs - AFC Hornchurch, AFC Wimbledon, FC United etc. Mind you, none of these teams are selected by the fans.And fans that don't have to have watched the matches at that! I personally have my doubts about how it works in practice. A theory one can only admire - all having our ideas on team selection as we do - but how does internet democracy take the subtle things about personality into account? Manager's personal relationships with players is 50% of successful team selection I'd say. Interfere with that at your peril! Of course I could be wrong and we are about to find out. I look forward to hearing what managers reading this think! There's little doubt that we are going to have to bring it in as a new factor in trying to work out whether Ebbsfleet will win any given game!

And the God of football fixtures gave us Oxford versus Ebbsfleet as the first test!

I'd love to be recommending Ebbsfleet for a victory on such a momentous weekend but I watched the effect that Darren Patterson has had at the Kassam already in the FA Cup. Oxford brushed aside Northwich and I think it would be folly to oppose the Us even though their price of [1.9] is shorter than I would post.

The better bet strikes me as a Lay on league leaders Aldershot who can be posted at an extremely short [1.6] for their home tie against Rushden and Diamonds.

There are those that believe in God and those that believe in Murphy's Law*.

Murphy's Law has always surrounded Rushden. They couldn't be recommended in the Live on Setanta two weeks ago because they don't win at home.

They went on to win 5-0 and followed it with a creditable demolition of League opponents Macclesfield in the FA Cup last Saturday.

Main reason for this is the irresistible goalscoring form of Simeon Jackson. I was mightily impressed with his strikes against Macclesfield and he has listened to that advice that Bill Shankly gave to strikers " when you get the ball in the penalty area and don't know what to do with it, just stick it in the net and we'll discuss the options later".

Murphy's Law comes into this bet recommendation because Aldershot haven't drawn a home game this season so I can hear the legions arguing that I should be backing Rushden at a terrific price if I think they hold sway. The legions are brave and reckless. More brave and reckless than I. I admire them when they are right because they make more money than me!

I do think Rushden hold sway and are terrific value in this fixture because Aldershot, whilst talented, are definitely not unbeatable at the Recreation as Crawley and Torquay have proved.This is a bad time to be playing Rushden and the price is not reflecting that.Rushden may be about to go on a run that catapults them up the table. I wouldn't bet on that, however. Only that their immediate form and Jackson's confidence are immense plusses that have overcome, in my weighing up the fixture mind, the disappointing early season form that has a potential title candidate languishing in mid-table.

Murphys Law surrounds Rushden. It can't be a draw because Aldershot don't draw at home says to me that it might be a draw! I'm going down the lay route because I'm a cautious punter and Murphy's Law is what I believe in!

RECOMMENDATION:

4pt LAY of Aldershot at 1.6 or less against Rushden & Diamonds

*MURPHY'S LAW - the Irish based truism that if common sense suggests one thing, the opposite will be what actually happens

To read more about the Ebbsfleet story go to:

https://sport.independent.co.uk/football/news/article3157741.ece

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1. jamiecarl | 14 November 2007

   Jim Smith has to accept that things have moved on since when he first started out. The days of half-time oranges and a few ales after your post-match shower are over. To use an an analogy: you wouldn't apply for a job in a Central London office if you refused to use e-mail would you?

   I fear the Ebbsfleet situation will end in tears. You can't have that many people pick a team, specially when 99% of them don't watch the players train during the week!

2. apal | 15 November 2007

   It'll be a gravesend for them.

3. Ed | 15 November 2007

   Don't often disagree with the tips on here but I can't see anything but a Shots win at the Rec on Saturday, market hasn't really settled yet but if I can get about 1.9 I'll pile in.

   FREE MONEY!

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