Non-League Betting: Leave those Lillywhites alone

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 28 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Fresh from successfully identifying four minnows to follow in the FA Cup, The Boz is back on duty in the Blue Square Premier weighing up Thursday's Live game.....

Blanket opposition of the favourite in the Live on Setanta games still has a level stakes profit of over two points for this season after significant profits last year. The temptation is to suspend critical faculty and continue to bet blind going into this week's game as beleaguered Salisbury City host champions elect Crawley Town.

Man did not evolve from the ape, however, by keeping his brain in a pickle jar and whilst using superstition is not unknown in The Boz repertoire, I've wrapped my brain around this one and am prepared to make a case for bucking the system and backing the fave on Thursday night.

The main reason is the price. My own tissue had the Lilywhites - who have lost seven games on the bounce - somewhere around [3.6] so it's a bit of a surprise to see them hovering around [3.0]. The subsequent drift on the Crawley price to [2.5] in places has to make them an interesting proposition.

Evans' Red Devils are not in the greatest current form themselves and the capitulation in the Cup against old favourites Havant and Waterlooville on Saturday was hardly inspiring. The sending off of Thomas Pinault was the catalyst in this one and discipline is still a problem - as always in Evans' teams - but I watched them demolish Barrow three weeks ago and in that game, Weatherstone, Pittman and Cook put on a show that did have you thinking that Crawley were a possible for the title in this very open year. Perhaps not a surprise that Evans has got them out of the Cup to get the focus firmly back on winning the league.

Incredible to think that just five weeks ago, Salisbury were still on my shortlist as possible title contenders. Sangere was looking a serious rock at the back and Tubbs and Feeney were firing up front. The wheels, however, have seriously fallen off the Lilywhites and I watched goalkeeper James Bittner on Saturday send that spine shivering message of lost confidence throughout his side and I fear for them again until Nick Holmes somehow gets hold and reminds them how well they were playing at the start of the season.

I'm usually keen to punt on when a team breaks its losing run but for whatever reason, Salisbury are priced up short for this and I've seen nothing to suggest that they can get anything but a mauling from a Crawley side who still have half an eye on the title. The Devils are fitter and faster and the sort to really go on the rampage if they smell the slightest whiff of fear!

Back Crawley.

Saturday sees another contentious piece of pricing in the BSP as Woking are around [3.0] to win at home against those perennial talking horses Stevenage Borough. Inexplicable as ever as the Cards have the better current form figure and are solid at home since the arrival from Millwall of loan keeper Lenny Pidgeley.

Borough are capable of scoring at will which is presumably why oddsmakers keep pricing them as though they are undefeatable. In actual fact, Stevenage have lost five out of eight on the road this year, they defend like muppets (which is an insult to Kermit!) and are imminently beatable. They come into this on the back of a scrambled draw at home to Horsham in the cup and whilst Mitchell Cole does look to have the class to trouble the Cards, I could not be backing Borough at [2.2] with that away record. All the value lies in opposing them and although that has become another of the Boz ape like acts, it is what I'm going to be doing again this weekend!

Seismic shockwaves in the Blue Square North last weekend as The Boz's pre-season longshots from hometown Redditch won away at league leaders Southport! Are we about to see another of those long runs up the table that Barrow effected so brilliantly last season? I've watched the VTR of the game with a view to informing betting for this weekend and there is indeed a new physicality about Redditch that Gary Whild has engendered with his clearout.

Is it therefore a case of backing The Reds blind now for the rest of the season as we did so successfully with Barrow last year? Answer: Not really. I was more impressed with Southport than Redditch and have concluded that it was just one of those results. The Sandgrounders were unlucky and will bounce back and you should support them this weekend as they seek to repair damage at home to a Workington side who have yet to win away.

The Boz's recommended bets for this weekend:

1.5pt Back on Crawley at [2.5] or greater in the Live on Setanta game v Salisbury
2pt Lay on Stevenage at [2.2] or less away at Woking on Saturday
1pt Back on Southport at home to Workington in BSN