Learning from your mistakes

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 24 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football (Gary Boswell has been a non-league football betting specialist since 1999 and was the betting correspondent for the Non-League paper-2001-2006. He was a close season transfer coup for the new international publication NonLeague Today and also signed to write for Betfair at the end of the 06/07 season).

It sometimes seems to me that Betfair was invented for punters who like to take on the fav. As the son of a traditional bookmaker, that instinct is deeply ingrained in my genes and I also know that I came to specialise in non-league football because taking on the fav is a simple approach that pays long term profit here.
There's also the matter of having that option to LAY instead of BACK in any individual market.

I started becoming a successful tipster once I was given that option and you can see it clearly in my results this year if you are following this Blog. My LAY recommendations are running at 66.66 % success rate and a 10point plus profit whilst BACKS are holding me down with only a 41.4 % hit rate.

Never to be underestimated what a comfort blanket it is to have the draw on your side when making up your mind about the team with the edge in a football match and if you restrict yourself to playing in just those fixtures where the odds offered are weighted heavily toward the side you favour, you won't go far wrong with a LAY only strategy.

You'll realise that I'm talking to myself here and post morteming how come I spoiled a brilliant weekend of successfully laying the screaming odds on talking horses in the Blue Square Premier by backing one in the Blue Square South that ended in a draw. Let that Blog be a lesson to us all. I've pinned it to my wall to remind me to never BACK again unless I'm 99% sure the back team are gonna win ten-nil!

This midweek's Live on Setanta games fit simply into the Boswell strategy. Ten favourites out of eleven have failed to win in this genre now and no reason to change the betting strategy this week. Yes, Ebbsfleet are back in a bit of form after their three game drought. Yes, they have an interesting and charmingly named triumvirate strikeforce in Chukki Eribenne,Sasha Opinel and Raphael Nade (make a great boy band when they decide to hang up their boots!)who terrorised Kidderminster in the 5-4 win last week and Yes, Stonebridge Road is an intimidating place for visitors. Steve Evans' Crawley, however, are no mugs and no outsider for this in my book. Stafford Rangers' loss was Evans' gigantic gain when Guy Madjo swapped clubs in the summer and I expect him to make some hay amongst a dubious Ebbsfleet defence. Crawley at least good for a point and the Lay on the fav is the obvious call again.

York at home to Halifax on Thursday is less straightforward. The Minstermen have traded at 1000 to win the title in the past week which is one of those gets if it comes off seeing as they were 10.0 just six weeks ago when the season started. And stranger things have happened as when Kidderminster went up as Champions in 2000 after being bottom with nil point after five games.

Billy McKewan can be trusted to sort out the horrors that have been York's defence so far and they kept an admirable clean sheet with just nine men on the pitch at Grays on Saturday. Even so, 2.36 for a side yet to win at home.........remember the new resolution!.... I don't fancy Halifax like I fancy Crawley but I think on balance, the way to go in this one too is to Lay York. They may be on a marginal upcurve and they may have dropped the goalkeeper who didn't know his arse from his elbow but they've still shipped two goals a game at home this season and Campbell and Killeen can cause them some more headaches on Thursday in nicking a point or more. Conclusion: Small LAY the fav.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

3.5pt LAY Ebbsfleet against Crawley at 2.46 or less
1 pt LAY York against Halifax at 2.4 or less