Non-league / Gary Boswell / 08 October 2007 /

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

I've successfully predicted the bursting of the Stevenage and Torquay bubbles over the past couple of weeks but the market remains convinced that the Blue Square Premier Championship is a straight scrap between the two. I covered the tough four games that Torquay must follow their defeat to Ebbsfleet with in last week's blog and worth a note now that Stevenage must face Woking, Torquay, Burton and Halifax in their next four. That's a brutal sequence from which they'll be looking to bag at least eight points but perhaps be happy with five or six given that both Woking and Halifax specialise in draws and with both being in reasonable form at the minute.

Much may therefore depend on the Stevenage-Burton-Torquay triangle of games which should be looked at closely. Burton haven't quite dominated their 'easy patch' the way I was hoping but showed great character again in getting four points this week from games in which they looked buried. They continue to be my value pick against the favs. They have a visit to Moss Lane to overcome on Tuesday night but victory there could see them close the points gap on Torquay completely and set themselves for their trickier tests from a position of strength.

It remains a very open year still with even early fancies Forest Green getting back into the mix. It was watching the way they turned over Stevenage that led me to consider recommending the same LAY on Borough in the outrights that I suggested on Torquay last week. Regular readers will know about the way in which Boro are traditionally always overbet and the game at the New Lawn showed how they can - for all their prettiness - be very vulnerable to the physical approach. They may also be a side relying heavily on their goalgetter Steve Morison who was absent that night.

I fancy them for the title more than I fancy Torquay but at the current 3.5 on offer, I'm convinced they can both be seriously taken on with the title just as likely to end up at Aldershot,Cambridge & Burton (and dare I still say Forest Green?) as it is to find its way to Plainmoor or Broadhall Way.

Tuesday night's match betting is trappy but the Live on Setanta game should be the one to focus on. Speculation about Jimmy Quinn's departure from Abbey Road seems to have deflected focus from the football for a while but I still like the way the Us are performing in general and I would expect them to be able to comfortably hold the threat of Rushden & Diamonds who have turned out to be a very middle of the road outfit this term. Wolleaston still impresses me as the best potential in the league and with Boylan and Fortune-West steadily coming back to fitness up front and Danny Gleeson a very dangerous raider down the right, this is a game for the favs.

The final bet of the night concerns the Forest Green-Northwich fixture. I'm kicking myself for ruining a potential 100% weekend by picking the wrong one of the two 'winless' teams to play on but at least studying the Vics closely and watching them helps me for a strong opinion on this match. I'm back to rating the Vics as no-hopers with a dreadful defence. The boardroom news that the Inland Revenue are considering winding the club up is hardly likely to help preparations for facing a Rovers side that has won three on the bounce including home wins against Cambridge and Stevenage.
It'll be sod's law if Northwich finally win when I give them no chance but I'm saying sod it to sod's law and trusting Jimmy Harvey's boys to renew my pre-season faith.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

5pt LAY on Stevenage at 3.5 or less in the Championship outrights
1pt BACK Forest Green to beat Northwich Victoria
1pt LAY on Rushden in Tuesday's Live on Setanta game against Cambridge

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