Non-league / Gary Boswell / 07 April 2008 /

Gary Boswell is the man in form with another 100% recommendation on Saturday and nine correct tips out of eleven over the past two weeks in this blog to show a 12.2point profit to advised stakes. Here is his rundown of the midweek fare in the Blue Square Leagues...

Four of my correct recommendations in the past two weeks have involved Northwich Victoria and it is tempting to continue milking the cash-cow that is Dino Maamria's Vics but their fixture on Tuesday night, at home to Forest Green, is the first for a while to sow the seed of doubt. Saturday's win over Stafford Rangers was never a value bet and ended up arguably as a lucky collect. I think their tremendous run of form may just come to its end now. As a stage performer, I learned the most important lesson is knowing when to stop and that applies to this game too. Now is the time to leave Northwich alone.

Casting around for alternatives in the Premier is hard with all the play-off sides demonstrating various degrees of wobble. None more so than Paul Buckle's Torquay who I originally had as a nap on Tuesday night at home to Oxford. The 1-0 defeat against Farsley has put a dent in confidence at Plainmoor and I'm no longer prepared to risk cash supporting a Gulls side who have not really been playing well at all since the title slipped from their grasp.

Conquerors Farsley Celtic have been performing much more creditably.The arrival of Rory Prendergast does seem to have done the job for John Deacy's troops who have successfully pulled away from the relegation threat for the moment with a string of fine results. There is an extra dimension to their attack embodied by the skill on the flank that Prendergast has brought making Celtic a team to follow. They are not a good price on Tuesday night though for a game against Droylsden that they can be fancied to win. Droyslden are still displaying plenty of grit themselves despite their hopeless league position and I would not want to take too short an odds on price about any of their opponents in the remaining games.

The only two sides continuing to demonstrate form reliable enough to make them a gambling proposition in the Premier are Exeter and champions elect Aldershot. Both have tough away games on paper Tuesday night - the former at Salisbury and the latter at Ebbsfleet - but they are both a working man's price courtesy of being away from home and playing against sides that earlier in the season would have posed a serious threat. Neither Salisbury nor Ebbsfleet have much to play for now in the league and the latter must have shifted their focus squarely to the imminent appearance at Wembley for the Trophy final. That makes them vulnerable to a Shots side who are still rampant and could in fact wrap the title up mathematically on Tuesday night with a win (if Torquay do indeed fail to beat Oxford). At around [2.1], the Shots strike me as value to achieve that and I now rate that the Premier League nap on Tuesday night.

A stronger fancy though perhaps comes in Blue Square North where Barrow continue their quest for play-off position with a game away at Cumbrian counterparts Workington. A tough assignment on paper with the Reds having overcome the dire form that saw them plummet past Barrow in the league standings after Xmas. No gimme for the Bluebirds but you have to fancy them nevertheless. Walker and Rogan continue to impress me as the best strike partnership in this league and the governance coming from the dugout, in the shape of managers of the month Sheridan and Bayliss, enough to ensure that Barrow won't go down easily.All we need from a betting perspective as the prices make Workington a layable commodity. Several players, Graham Anthony of Workington and Matt Henney of Barrow in particular, will be confused as to which side they are playing for. Such is the close knit community of football in Cumbria (and arguably non-league football in general) and that and the intense local rivalry felt amongst fans adds a destabilising factor that makes me retreat a little from maximum stakes. If it goes on football though, Barrow will need simply to negate the threat posed by the Reds strike partnership, the beautifully named Michael Reed and Johnny Wright, and at least a point will be theirs. My arithmetic leads me to suggest that a price of [2.9] or less on Workington is well worth a lay and I'll be trusting my current run of good form to this bet in the main on Tuesday night.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

3pt LAY of Workington at [2.9] or less against Barrow
1pt BACK on Aldershot at [2.1] to beat Ebbsfleet

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