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Non-league
Can you name the Fav for Sunday's Non-League Wembley showdown
After correctly calling Ebbsfleet and Kirkham & Wesham in last weekend's Non-League Wembley fare,The Boz goes for the hat-trick with Cambridge United on Sunday...
After correctly calling Ebbsfleet and Kirkham & Wesham in last weekend's Non-League Wembley fare,The Boz goes for the hat-trick with Cambridge United on Sunday...
Bookmakers won't call it. They go joint favourites Cambridge and Exeter across the board. It's down to the democratic tool that is the Betfair exchange market to decide who goes off favourite in this one.
I've watched all week and predictably, it was Exeter at [2.56] on Tuesday and Cambridge at [2.58] on Wednesday. I expect it to keep flip-flopping right up to kick-off time but The Boz is very clear about his favourites.
I recognise the fact that Cambridge have a poor head to head record against Exeter and that the Grecians' 1-0 win at the Abbey in the League was the recent collateral form for this game and is perhaps the reason why oddsmakers have bolstered the Exeter price. There is also the fact that Paul Tisdale's troops came into the play-offs as the side with wind in their sails and as we saw in Blue Square North with Barrow's win, that sometimes is the deciding factor in these one off showdowns.
Eastbourne's win in the South, however, was a blow for the justice of the runners up getting their just desserts and there's a feeling that same is required in this one with such a valuable prize as a place back in the Football League on offer.
Cambridge were the pecking order superior team for all of the season in Blue Square Premier and I am sticking to my pre-play off assessment that the overall winner was going to come from the Cambridge-Burton half of the draw.
In the three departments where Boz scores head to head, Cambridge come out on top in all three. Paul Tisdale is a rapidly improving tactician and pulled a masterstroke with his substitutions at Plainmoor in the semi-final but he comes up against the ultimate experienced head in Jimmy Quinn who has been in this situation many times before and has consistently impressed with his touchline tactics. One nil to Cambridge!
The goalkeeper issue also favours the Us. Paul Jones is prone to the occasional lapse whilst Danny Potter rates in the top three BSP goalkeepers this season and had a blinder in both games against Burton.
And finally, most talented player on the pitch will also be a Cambridge blue. Rob Wolleaston even bagged a brace from midfield against Burton and whilst not the most stylish creator in the game, I like the way that he has time on the ball and I predict that if he doesn't go up with Cambridge after this game, he'll be the target for many a League side next season.
I respect the Exeter threat that Moxey,Stansfield and Logan present but Cambridge are a defensively minded side who conceded less than a goal a game all season and I expect the Mighty Quinn to create an atmosphere of calm patience that has Cambridge very much my favourites for the game. It might take extra time and/or penalties so I'll be covering those angles but I have the Us as short as [2.16] in my projected 90 minute betting so the [2.58] currently on offer can be considered real value.
Further value always comes in the half time/full time turnaround approach when one side has a propensity to either coming from behind or losing a lead. Exeter have both as they proved in the semi-final and indeed in last season's Wembley play-off final!
My one concession to a small stake on an ultimate success for the Grecians will be taking the [30.0] available on Cambridge half-time, Exeter full-time as there was something about the last 18 minutes at Plainmoor in the semi that hinted at perhaps Paul Tisdale being on a big managerial upcurve. If he pulls it on Jimmy Quinn then he will definitely have deserved his promotion and it's one of those hunches on which the Boz sometimes acts, especially when it goes against his overall opinion!
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Events calendar
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