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A game in hand or points in the bag?

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Gary Boswell talks us through the best betting opportunities in the world of non-league football this week

This time of year is all about sides with something to play for and whilst I acknowledge those doom merchants who point out that there is no such thing as a certainty and that it is folly to attribute too much to the difference between a side with motivation and one without, I'm nevertheless seeking the 'unequal' fixtures as percentage calls especially where the class is very much with the side that has reason to win.

Three big games fall into that category this midweek in the Blue Square leagues and I'll be playing in all of them.Yes, the pressure of needing to win can work against a side that suffers from nerves but I'm confident that doesn't apply in the first two cases and is a manageable risk in the third.

Southport to beat Leigh RMI in the North is not going to be any kind of price but it's as close to a banker certainty as you are ever likely to get. The Railwaymen gave up on their season a while ago and are going down without much in the way of honours and the dire record of a 75% defeat rate on the road.

The Sandgrounders have been play-off contenders all season and chased Kettering hard early on before the wobble that cost Peter Davenport his job. At first sight, that looked more of the madness that saw Kettering ship their boss going into the play-offs last season but in fact, Southport's form has been a revelation under the auspices of the one and only Gary Brabin. A play-off place comes with a win in this game in hand and likewise on the final day against similarly relegated Vauxhall Motors. You could not have asked for an easier finale and despite the agony this might cause to the heroes from Barrow that have won us so much dosh in the past few weeks, there's no way that I can see Southport slipping up.

Game in hand or points in the bag? If it's three points, I, like most, am with the latter but Blue Square South wannabes and Welsh Cup winners Newport County are just one point adrift of the play-off places and a win tonight at Spytty Park in their game in hand against Thurrock will catapult them into the play-offs and leave their final day destiny in their own hands. Thurrock are by no means a gimme and come into it in decent form but are also in that 'nothing to play for' bracket so that the only thing to beat County will be themselves. I see no sign though of Peter Beadle suffering the touchline jitters.

Perhaps not true of Nigel Clough who has been known to engender a proper wobble at Burton Albion. I was watching for it at the Pirelli on Friday night and the Brewers were seriously on the back foot first half against a Stevenage side they ought to have been outpointing. Very encouraging therefore that Clough did the job in the dressing room and turned it into a game of two halves with Burton running out decisive second half winners.

One more win cements the play-off place for them and with fellow contenders Exeter in the last game, Clough will want to see them home in Tuesday night's visit to the Aggborough. It was Kidderminster who effectively ended Burton's title dream when they won a crucial encounter at the Pirelli around Xmas and Mark Yates' Harriers are never a side to be taken lightly but I can't see them attacking this with the fervour that Burton are likely to muster so that as long as the nerve holds again, I won't be expecting the Brewers to get beat. A small lay on Kiddy is the way to play.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

2pts BACK SOUTHPORT to beat Leigh RMI at [1.22] or better

1pt BACK NEWPORT to beat Thurrock at [1.56] or better

1pt LAY KIDDERMINSTER against Burton at [3.0]

p.s. This week's Boz Quiz question: During his playing career, new Southport manager Gary Brabin was dubbed the 'non-league Gazza' for his propensity to practical jokes. What prank infamously caused Blackpool's Nigel Worthington to fail to see the funny side resulting in Brabin being shipped from the club?