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Natural drawn thrillers - Why backing the stalemate can be your best bet

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"Magical" Matthew Walton tells us why backing the draw may not be the "sexiest" betting option out there but can prove a very profitable one if you know which teams to look out for

"Magical" Matt Walton uncovers the statistics which highlight the value in backing the draw. In a game of winners and losers it's the 'draw-ers' who come out on top!

Depending upon the occasion, backing the draw could be seen as a safe, sensible or possibly shrewd approach.

Mind you, on other occasions it could be argued that lumping on the stalemate is a sign of stupidity - you simply can't work out who'll win the match so plump for the middle ground.

Either way, it opens up the topic for an interesting discussion.

In the betting world, where we generally stand or fall by positive results - horses winning races, teams winning, or even losing, matches etc - the draw can be seen as a bit of a negative result.

It's not the stuff of major gambles and sexy headlines. Or when it is, the connotation is usually to do with tedious action, colluded results or plain good/bad luck - wins happen by design, draws happen by accident, right?

What many backers forget is there are far too many draws for them to be ignored and not even considered for betting interest. After all, many's the time you're faced with a match which is [2.5] each of two and [3.25] the draw.

Well, I'd rather be on a [3.25]) winner than a [2.5] shot any day - wouldn't you?

To illustrate this point we've put together a table of this season's league draws. Games played, number of draws and the percentages applicable to those figures.

The most striking aspect is the spread of percentages. It's illuminating to learn how some teams draw close on 40% of their matches whilst the Accrington's and Bournemouth's of this world have barely played out a drawn game this season.

It's also worth noting how several teams at the top (Manchester United, West Brom, MK Dons, Peterborough etc) have quite low ratios whilst many at the bottom (Fulham, Colchester, Notts County, Macclesfield etc) appear to draw a higher percentage of their matches.

Furthermore, if we believe in 'old fashioned' odds making - that the draw should generally be something around [3.25] to [3.75] - well, maybe we need to think again.

Sticking to our percentage charts, sides like Lincoln City (9%) would be around [11.0] to draw a game whilst, at the other end of the spectrum, you find Bristol Rovers (39%) at nearer the [2.5] mark.

Extreme examples, yes, and hypothetical matches which would of course depend upon their respective opponents' statistics as well but, nevertheless, it does illustrate the wide range of figures which we see when studying this season's fixtures.

This is just another example of figures being readily available, often staring us right in the face, but for many backers it just doesn't register in the mechanics of deciding their bets. Why is it that choosing the win option is always the starting point, maybe it should be the draw?

Let's move it on then to the coming week's league fixtures, using the statistics provided to bet in a more intelligent and informed manner on the matches presented for our pleasure (and profit!).

Now, logic would suggest that the higher the combined percentage total of a match, the more probable a draw is to occur (hence it's a bet), and the lower the figure, the less likely we are to see a stalemate (possibly making the lay of the draw a more attractive proposition).

Premier League
Highest figures for the weekend are Birmingham/Liverpool (29+34 = 63), Manchester City/Fulham (63) and Portsmouth/Blackburn (63). The least likely would be Wigan/Reading (40).

Championship
Highest figure here, somewhat surprisingly, is Colchester/Stoke (70) with Plymouth/Blackpool (68) as the next best. The lowest total is Preston/Ipswich (55).

Division 1
No surprise to see the draw specialists, Bristol Rovers, head the list in this section. The Bristol/Brighton match (66) scores highest whilst Tranmere/Southend (45) is lowest.

Division 2
Notts County/Wycombe (66) heads the list in the division which, overall, has the lowest average ratings for draws. We see Morecambe/Lincoln (34) and Wrexham/Accrington (30) come in very low indeed.

As mentioned earlier, the fact that football matches involve two sides means that we can't be too simplistic in our interpretation of these figures. For sure, if both sides draw exactly the same percentage of matches, say 33%, then we could argue that a draw between the two should be around [3.0]. However, if one draws 18% and the other draws 36% then we have to use a little creative logic to bridge the gap.

That said, what we have done here is to question many backers' simple assumption that the draw is a pretty constant result which should be priced at roughly the same mark for each match. That is clearly not the case. Follow the matches above on Betfair this weekend and see how the statistics are reflected in the betting. You'll be amazed to see that many matches have similar odds despite widely differing percentages.

Moreover, we need to stop looking upon the draw as a lazy, undecided or negative bet. It should be treated in exactly the same way as the win option for either side. Given these figures you can see that often there's a fair bit of value to be had in this bet.

Ok, the draw means that neither side wins ... but if YOU win, isn't that the best result of all?