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Matt talks stats

Look beyond the Premiership and find the value

"Magical" Matthew Walton urges value-seeking football punters to look beyond the glamour of the top-flight to find real betting value

I know people, as I'm sure you do, who support a Premier League side and have no real concept of the game outside the top flight. They wouldn't know if Blackpool were really in the Championship or not, whether Gillingham were likely to be relegated from Division 1 and if Hereford or Darlington were the best bets to go up automatically from Division 2. For sure, they've heard of these teams but their level of knowledge about them is, shall we say, limited.

The point is an appreciation of football at this level, at all levels for that matter, is worthwhile if it is going to have an end result, which in our case is betting success and profitability. Would you rather have a (2.2) win with Wigan or a (2.8) success with Southend?

Clearly an in-depth knowledge of every team in every division is asking a bit much but there is a need to see the league as 92 clubs and not just 20 elite teams. In fact, same goes for North of the border, the rest of Europe and so on.

To illustrate this example the table shows the performance of the top six sides in each of the four sections of the league. Unless they have specific inside knowledge most punters seem happiest to stick near the top of divisions where the win/loss decision involves a more black and white judgement.

Now, we may think we know who's leading which division and which side might make the play-offs but when the data is laid out in this format it gives us a better appreciation of the characteristics of each division - and each does have its own distinctive features.

Making some simple observations. Clearly the Premier League has a top six which doesn't lose many matches, home or away. On the other hand, the Championship has the lowest figures, both home and away, for wins by the top sides. Division 1 has dominant home performances offset by largely even away results. Division 2 shows a clear bias for the top six sides playing away from home as opposed to on their own patch.

Such characteristics might seem obvious now, once they've been pointed out, but many punters don't see them when they read the paper on a Sunday morning nor pay any respect to them when they come to place a bet. They don't look beyond, say, Arsenal v Middlesbrough on the coupon, they just ignore the rest of the action.

Therefore, strategies can be put in place to deal with the various divisions on account of their particular patterns. Backing sides to win at home in the Premier League, price permitting, has the highest win ratio. In the Championship the opportunities to lay these sides seem abundant as they win just 52% at home and 39% away.

Division 1 mixes good home form with mediocre away results and Division 2 has a 60% away win percentage for the top sides - this should make these teams around (1.66) for every away match they play, so will Stockport County be this short when they face Lincoln City on Saturday, bearing in mind County have won their last 7 away games? Probably not.

So, as you can see, it doesn't even require an encyclopaedic knowledge of football to be able to spot such trends. You just need to have a better overview of how the various divisions operate. And, of course, these patterns change every season so it's an ongoing study for us all.

There is also the option to extend our investigations beyond the simple 90 minute result and look for other interesting markets outside of the top section.

Take, for example, the markets involving goals. The figures again are illuminating when the different divisions are considered. For all matches this season :-

Premiership - HOME - F 174 A 68 and AWAY - F 134 A 71
Championship - HOME - F 188 A 119 and AWAY - F 144 A 140
Division 1 - HOME - F 162 A 77 and AWAY - F 145 A 111
Division 2 - HOME - F 175 A 93 and AWAY - H 172 A 112

You'll see that some of the points we made earlier are borne out in the scoring charts (strong Premier League performances, average Championship results etc). However, there are several anomalies, for example, the Division 2 goals tally is very similar to the Premier League but the win percentage is much lower (52% to 67%).

It just illustrates how the value which you may search for, in vain, when trying to back Arsenal or Manchester United might actually be lurking in Swansea or the MK Dons.

Overall, we need to remember two key points. One is that we will never become experts on every level of them game, unless we devote our whole lives to the pursuit. Therefore, we shouldn't try to become a 'master of all divisions'.

That said, we shouldn't believe, like many of our friends, that footballing life doesn't exist outside of the Premier League. As backers who are driven by profitability, we have to search out the best returns for our investments no matter where they are to be found.

Just like racing, would you rather collect on Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup at (2.10) this Friday at Cheltenham or the winner of the Fakenham 3.00, the same afternoon, at (2.90)?

It should be about betting returns and not bragging rights. Look beyond the Premiership and find the value.