Matt talks stats / Matthew Walton / 28 August 2008 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet

Matthew Walton uncovers the differences in scoring styles between the Big Four.

A favourite of many backers is the 'First Goalscorer' market.

Sometimes this kind of bet offers the chance to turn an otherwise unappealing match into a decent betting opportunity, often it's a way to generate a winning position on a match long before the final whistle is blown - but it's ALWAYS a way of making money provided, as per usual, you approach this kind of betting in the right way.

And, as we all know, the right way to attack any betting market is when armed with the right information.

So, the purpose of this feature is to provide such information or, at least, to highlight the sort of information you should be aware of (and be using) when placing your bets on the First Goalscorer market on Betfair.

Now you might think the first goalscorer market is a pretty simple one to analyse. You can start your research by :-

(a) looking for a player in the team most likely to win the match
(b) studying which of this side's players take the free-kicks and penalties
(c) seeing which players are in form, have a track record against the opponents and generally score the most goals for the team in question
(d) factor in the strengths or weaknesses of the respective opposition
(e) assessing, on the strength of all the above factors, which player represents the best value

Well, to a point, yes. Such a simple (dare we say simplistic) way of looking at the First Goalscorer market will provide its fair share of success. However, here's something else which is worth considering. An extra area of analysis which can help your success rate ... and so your account balance!

You see, each side has its own characteristics when it comes to scoring goals. Some have an array of possible goalscorers, some have only few options in this department. And it's these subtle variations which can provide you with some big value bets.

To highlight this point, we studied the top four sides in the Premier League last year.

What we find is that Manchester United scored a total of 80 league goals last season via a total of 14 different players (including own goals). Arsenal bagged 74 from 16, Liverpool 67 from 14 and Chelsea 65 from 16.

Clearly, there are differences between these sides - differences which can provide us with money-making opportunities.

Take the example of Chelsea. Of their 65 league goals, the top three scorers in the team (Lampard 10, Didier Drogba 8 and Joe Cole 8) collectively mustered 40% of them. Hence, 60% came from outside the first three in the list ... and probably the betting. You can see where we're going here.

Contrast that with Manchester United. They scored a total of 80 league goals in the 2007-08 season but these came from only 14 different players. What's more, their top three scorers (Cristiano Ronaldo 31, Carlos Tevez 14, Wayne Rooney 12) accounted for 71% of the side's league goals as their other players barely got a look in.

What does this tell us?

Well, the decision to back the First Goalscorer for Chelsea must include a lot more possibilities than Manchester United. Or, put another way, when backing the First Goalscorer in a Chelsea game, the outsiders have a better chance of providing the winner than with Manchester United.

And each side will have its own peculiarities. Chelsea's top three players scored 40% of their league goals last season, Arsenal's bagged 51%, Liverpool's 59% and Manchester United topped out with 71% of their goals shared between their three leading strikers.

For sure, it was a golden season for Ronaldo and possibly a poor one for Drogba but that isn't really the point. The fact of the matter is that certain sides play in a style which affords certain players more time on the ball, more fluidity of movement and more opportunity to score. Like Manchester United, Arsenal also scored goals from 16 different sources last season. Liverpool and Chelsea's goals came from a variety of just 14 players.

All of a sudden the theory of blindly backing the penalty-taking, leading scorer of the match favourites looks somewhat basic in terms of logic. You do need to look a little further in order to unearth some good value bets.

What we should remember is that different sides play in different ways - sometimes that involves a subtle change, more often a marked alteration in style - and that means we must treat the SAME markets in DIFFERENT ways when considering DIFFERENT teams.

When faced with Chelsea v Spurs at the weekend it will make more sense to factor in a first goal from Michael Essien, Salomon Kalou or John Terry at a fancy price. Conversely, when looking for Manchester United's first scorer against Zenit St. Petersburg the choice is more likely to centre around the claims of a Rooney or Tevez.

And the same applies for each side you care to name. Study their spread of goalscorers and you'll see exactly how many, or how few, players are worthy of consideration in this market.

Be aware of these statistics and it will improve your chance of success on Betfair.