"Total Goals Guys" talk you through this week's selections

Betfacts / Total Goals Guys / 10 August 2007 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Avoid Liverpool's visit to Villa like the plague

La Liga doesn't kick off until next weekend so that leaves just 7 of our sides in action this weekend.

First up SPL Champions Celtic travel to the Falkirk stadium and after last Sunday's disappointing 0-0 draw at home to Kilmarnock we really can't see anything other than an away win here. Falkirk are more than capable of a goal on their own patch also and when you consider Celtic have only been involved in one 0-0 draw in the last 3 seasons (at home to Rangers in April 06'), the 1.06 on offer looks decent enough to set the ball rolling this weekend.

Bayern Munich failed to qualify for this season's Champions League and the close season has been one of transition in losing such players as Owen Hargreaves, Roque Santa Cruz and Claudio Pizarro. However a summer influx containing Frank Ribery and Luca Toni has seen Bayern backed right in to heavy odds-on shots for the Bundesliga this season and few will bet against them turning in a few goals at home against newly promoted Hansa Rostock this Saturday (ko 2:30pm). The hosts are traditionally strong starters, there have been at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 season's openers and they will be one of our bankers for a goal this weekend. 1.03 looks tight but it's actually about right.

Rangers welcome St Mirren to Ibrox this Saturday at 3pm. We are massive fans of the home side so know all about the test that lies ahead for the visitors (we hope). Rangers haven't conceded a goal in each of their opening 3 competitive games so far this season whilst St. Mirren had a disappointing start to their season last week in losing 1-0 at home to Motherwell in a match they created few chances in. No Total Goals market has formed for this one so NO BET.

In short, Liverpool are a worry away from home and especially when it's a visit to a side like Aston Villa. The Anfield side have been involved in no fewer than five goalless encounters away from home in the last two seasons. The 1.1 that's on the go is actually about right but the hosts drew so many games last season and we can imagine Martin O'Neill being happy if it ends 0-0 so this one is definitely a NO BET.

Arsenal v Fulham usually means goals, goals, goals with only one of their last 6 EPL meetings finishing in the "unders" category. The Emirates has yet to see a Premiership 0-0 and we doubt that will happen this Sunday lunch time either. Its difficult to tell how Lawrie Sanchez' Fulham will approach this one after making wholesale changes to his squad from last season but we cant really argue with the 1.06 on offer when the stats tell us to back anything above 1.02.

We don't fear a blue day at Stamford Bridge on Sunday as Birmingham City pay the FA Cup holders a visit. Chelsea don't concede many goals and this always begs the question if you're a regular 1 goal backer - What if Chelsea don't score? In truth though over the last 3 seasons Chelsea have only 5 more home clean sheets than Liverpool and 3 more than Manchester United. Only 1 of their home matches in the last 2 seasons has finished goalless and that was the meaningless end of season fixture with United in May when they had already wrapped up the Championship. We are taking on the price of 1.05 here.

Premiership Champions Manchester United round up our first weekend of wagers as we are also on "1 goal or more" for Reading's visit to Old Trafford on in the 4pm ko this Sunday. The price of 1.05 for a goal in this one is a touch on the slim side but stats for the last 2 seasons tell you that it's worth backing a goal to be scored at Old Trafford if the price is 1.03 and upwards. You know the script; back 1 goal or more in the "Total Goals" market!

Our modest £100 starting bank has been split into 5 lots of £20 for our opening bets and our immediate strategy is to double up to the £200 mark by around mid to late October. Each bet will amount to no more than 25% of the betting bank.

Many a "one goal backer" you meet on the soccer forum will tell you there is a fine line between backing the 1 goal with enough of the betting bank to make it worth your while and being wiped out completely by the almost inevitable yet freak 0-0 that does and will happen. We are applying a unique "swimmers" concept that hopefully allows us to go for broke long term without snaking us back to square one. All will become more apparent as we reach closer to our immediate goal.

J 'n' N

Tags: Bayern Munich, Liverpool match, total goals betting