Spotlight on Mark Clattenberg in the Manchester Derby

Betfacts / David Croft / 17 August 2007 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

The BBC's David Croft looks at the impact the man in the middle has on Betfair's booking markets

I had the pleasure of interviewing Graham Poll earlier this week. Yes you did read that correctly, I did say pleasure. After years of shouting various four-letter words in his direction from the comfort of the stands it was fun to finally meet face to face and spend half an hour talking about his life and of course his former profession. Graham decided to hang up his whistle after 1544 games in charge and is now airing his views in the media, views that of course are very much in demand.

Poll of course was at the heart of many a controversial decision during his time in the middle, not least when he awarded three yellow cards to Croatia's Josip Simunic at the last World Cup. That decision probably brought about his decision to retire, and may well have brought an unexpected bonus for punters exploring the bookings market for that particular match.

When Graham started out, betting on the amount of bookings in a match was unheard of. Now of course it's commonplace and of course his liberal sprinkling of reds and yellows in recent years will have boosted the profits of many Betfair bookings backers and buyers I'm sure. Take last year's Manchester derby at Old Trafford for instance. 4 yellow cards and 1 red for City's Bernardo Corradi, would have scored 9 points and above on Betfair's match bookings odds market, but did you back or lay and what will you do when the two Manchester teams face each other for the first time this weekend?

It's the first big local derby of the season, it's the first time that Sir Alex and Sven will lock horns in the Premiership and of course City go into the match with two wins out of two whilst United for the time ever in the Premiership, haven't picked up three points in either of their opening two games. But will it be a heated affair and how will the referee react? Mark Clattenburg is the man in the middle and he averaged around 4 yellows per game last season, 3.95 to be exact but he only showed 3 red cards in his 42 games, none of which incidentally, were in the Premiership. The two previous seasons saw him show an average of 3.37 and 2.96 yellow cards per game.

He's not a man to suffer writer's cramp from dishing out the cards but that average of about 4 yellows a game puts him slap bang in the middle of Betfair's bookings market for this game. Personally I can see this being a spicy affair and should United find themselves trailing in the second half, which given the starts of both teams this season is easily possible, tempers are bound to get a little frayed. That's why the odds of 1.53 on Betfair for 9 points and above are short but still in my mind worth taking. And given the respective starts of both teams is the 4.6 on City to win worth a nibble? In my mind it is especially given the absence of Christiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney for United, a big loss for any side, even one with their strength in depth. Plus, and here's a silly fact, the pattern of the last four seasons has seen the winners of the Manchester derby at City's home ground alternate. Starting in 2004 with a win for City, then United in 2005, then City in 2006, then United last May. This weekend I think it's City's turn to take the honours.

Tags: bookings betting, Manchester derby, Mark Clattenburg