The Betfair Contrarian's Christmas message to Watford

Football Food For Thought / The Betfair Contrarian / 12 December 2007 / 5 Comments

The Betfair Contrarian still doesn't believe Watford will win the Championship and is prepared to stake his own money on it

On November 10th, the Betfair Contrarian penned his thoughts on betting.betfair.com on why Watford, wouldn't go on and win the championship - a somewhat startling proposition when you consider that they were eight points clear at the top of the table and even-money favourites on the exchange to remain there come the end of the season

Key reasons behind the Contrarian's analysis were: that they have never won the second division throughout their history, that early form is a poor indication of the eventual winner, that the stats don't bode well for teams who finished rock bottom the previous season to top the table the following year and that Watford's defence wasn't up to it.

Well rumours always rumble around football clubs but it has come to the attention of the Contrarian that someone at Watford got wind of this article and, so outraged by the fact that someone doubted their staying power, pinned it to wall of the home dressing room at Vicarage Road. Nevertheless, since it was posted, Watford have managed just five points from their last six matches, their lead is now reduced to just two points and they have drifted from evens to 3.75 (11-4) to be champions. Did Watford feel the pressure generated by the soothsayer that is the Betfair Contrarian or was this dip in form purely coincidental? We'll let the site's loyal readers decide for themselves.

Now the Betfair Contrarian is a stubborn character who isn't afraid to tell anyone who will listen when he knows he's right. Watford are undoubtedly a sturdy outfit but life isn't necessarily about to get any easier for the Hertfordshire outfit.

The Betfair Contrarian would never go as far as suggesting Watford are a one-man team but he will happily point out that whilst on-loan signing Adam Johnson was at the club, Watford took 27 points out of a possible 36 (a 75% return), but just 4 of a possible 15 since he returned to Middlesbrough (a 27% return). Johnson scored five goals in twelve matches for Watford during his loan spell and was the heartbeat of the team. Are they the Beatles, only without John Lennon?

Nathan "The Duke" Ellington is a fine player with over a hundred goals in his football league career so far. But the "Duke" just hasn't been on song since his arrival for £3.25m - stats along the lines of only 13 appearances, just two starts, an average of just 23 minutes on pitch per appearance and no league goals is hardly music to the ears of Watford supporters.

One player who has had no trouble scoring goals is Marlon King, who has ten in the Championship so far. But will the majestic goalscorer still be around after the January transfer window with the likes of Fulham and Reading knocking on the door?

One man who certainly won't be around at the end of January is Danny Shittu who will be off playing at the African Cup of Nations with Nigeria. He could miss as many as six league games. There are just eight teams in the league who have conceded more goals than Watford, so can the Hornets ill afford to lose the man who is more dominant in the air than the "Red Baron".

And Watford's record against other teams in the top eight this season needs to improve rapidly. They've played all bar Charlton and have won two, drawn one and lost three. That's not Championship-winning record yet.

So many questions but do Watford have the answers? Well, the Betfair Contrarian isn't one to take gratuitous swipes, he will happily put his money where his mouth is. He is prepared to bet against Watford winning the Championship at Betfair's current odds of [3.75] (11-4) and should Watford win, he will stump up £2,750 for the charity of Aidy Boothroyd's choice.

Should Watford not win the Championship, the Contrarian will nonetheless donate £1,000 to the aforementioned charity as a goodwill gesture and asks only that Mr Boothroyd gives him an interview explaining why Watford didn't win the league and a look ahead to the new season.

To read the original article on why Watford can't win The Championship go to:

http://betting.betfair.com/football/english-football-league/why-watford-cannot-win-the-cha.html

Comments (5)

1. Pete Thompson | 13 December 2007

   Spot on. They peaked far too early and teams have got too used to their direct sytle of play, there's no plan B when it doesn't work.
   West Brom will probably win it.

2. Hornetman | 13 December 2007

   Contrarian you are having a laugh. This is nothing but a minor wobble. Boothroyd's got the nous to pull it all round. £100 of that bet will be my money

3. bigboy | 13 December 2007

   What a load of tosh! Boothroyd continues to pull up trees at Watford. They were unlucky in November - three defeats came courtesy of an own-goal and two late scores. They are back on the road to the Championship now - 4 points taken from Colchester and Stoke, both matches away from home. With Plymouth, Sheff Weds, QPR and Cardiff to come - none in the top 8 - they should be another 12 points better off come the New Year. Enough to get Sir Elton singing in the shower anyway!

   Hope Watford take you up on the offer and then take your cash.

4. Hornetman | 13 December 2007

   bigboy speaks the truth

5. GeordieRacer | 13 December 2007

   I agree that Boothroyd's a really good manager who imho will be in the Premiership before long, but it won't be with Watford who haven't got the players, the fans, the ground, or the money to do it. They might get through the play-offs again, but they'll soon be back down where they belong. League One!