Premiership Betting; The Big Four are likely to be the top four again this year

Football Food For Thought / Ralph Ellis / 06 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Just when we all thought Aston Villa could mount a serious challenge to the Big Four and that the exertions of midweek Champions League football could take their toll, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and to a lesser extent Arsenal showed they have no intentions of budging, says Ralph Ellis.

Seven games gone, and the big four are looking ominously like the top four once again. You start each season with the idea that maybe this is the time somebody will break up the Premier League cartel which has dominated the game for the last half dozen campaigns. But already the signs are it's just not going to happen.

If there was to have been a weekend to signal a changing of the guard, this could have been the one. Chelsea were facing Martin O'Neill's rapidly improving team, who were rated the most likely to gatecrash the top places. They and Manchester United might have been tired from long trips in the Champions League. Liverpool were going to meet the new pretenders of cash-rich Manchester City. Arsenal had a long away trip to the Stadium of Light.

What happened? Luiz Felipe Scolari's side brushed aside Aston Villa with almost embarrassing ease. United showed Paul Ince exactly who is still the Guv'nor. Liverpool gave City a two goal start and still came back to win. And Arsenal were so worn out from their midweek exertions they had enough in the tank to find a 92rd minute equaliser and almost grabbed a winning goal too.

Okay, so Hull sit proudly in third place this morning after becoming the latest team to embarrass Tottenham. But if you seriously think they will stay there you won't have to move fast to get [150] for a top three finish! Not even Phil Brown will be seriously thinking about backing that.

So is it all so boringly predictable? Well the question of who will fill the top four places definitely is. But what order they finish in might just turn out to be a far more interesting chase this year.

Liverpool are still a generous [7.4] to lift their first ever Premier League title, yet yesterday's win at Eastlands suggested there's something more sustainable about their challenge this time. Fernando Torres has proved he can score scruffy goals as well as great goals, and with five from seven League games already, is a certainty to top the 20 mark for the season again. And it's no coincidence that Reds turned the game round after Robbie Keane had come off the bench, either.

The big test for them will come at the end of this month when they go to Stamford Bridge. It was Villa's big test, and they failed it, big time. It might have been 2-0 but it could have been 20, as Chelsea, now [2.2] favourites for the title, produced some dazzling passing football. For the last few seasons Didier Drogba has been the most important player for Roman Abramovich's club, but they didn't miss him yesterday. Avram Grant might have talked about changing the direct way of playing that Jose Mourinho employed. Scolari has actually done it. So much of Chelsea's play depended on knocking it long to Drogba, and under Mourinho the full backs were never encouraged to join in. Yesterday the ball stayed on the floor, Nicolas Anelka's movement did all the damage, and Ashley Cole looked like the man who was worth clandestine meetings to sign as he and Jose Bosingwa went rampaging forward on both wings.

United got the benefit of a dodgy decision that left Paul Ince spluttering, when Nemanja Vidic elbowed stand-in goalkeeper Jason Brown just before Wes Brown's opening goal. But Sir Alex put that into context: "I think we would have won anyway". In short it was a hard lesson for those, like me, who were tempted into laying some of the big teams with the idea that Champions League week sometimes makes them vulnerable. Only Arsenal's slip at Sunderland saved a few measly quid - but then Roy Keane maintained afterwards that the Gunners would comfortably finish in the qualifying places again.

Maybe it's because sports science is moving on, but long midweek trips into Europe don't seem to be having the same effect on the next weekend. Even Portsmouth, who didn't finish extra time until long past midnight on Thursday, had enough in the tank to stand up to Stoke. Harry had got them dipping in the Atlantic Ocean after their win in Portugal in place of an iced bath, and it clearly did the job. Pompey are [3.9] to finish in the top six and with Jermain Defoe and Peter Crouch in such form that's worth thinking about.

Incidentally, apart from Everton in 2005, can you remember who were the last club from outside the regular big four to finish in the Champions League places? That's right - Newcastle, third under Sir Bobby Robson in 2003. After yesterday's scruffy 2-2 Goodison draw it must seem like a lifetime ago for them both.