Football Food For Thought / Dan Fitch / 03 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Fourth position in the Premier League is a much coveted position, yet Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch has a feeling that no team wants to finish there.

Consider the evidence. Whilst Chelsea and United scrap it out for the league and Arsenal look destined for more non-trophy winning greatness, nobody is making a convincing attempt to finish fourth.

Once upon a time, to finish fourth was considered a decent achievement, but it did not merit an occasion to crack out the bunting.

These days finishing fourth is seen by most teams at the Holy Grail, to the extent that nobody would be surprised if Harrison Ford's next movie was entitled 'Indiana Jones And The Quest For The Champions League'.

The motivation is simple. If you qualify for the Champions League you get money and lots of it. No one finishing fourth actually figures they've got much chance of winning the thing, but the television cash on offer is enough to ensure that they can qualify again next year and the whole lucrative cycle can repeat itself.

This exclusive party is only ever attended by Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool; known collectively as 'The Soon To Be Obese Four'.

The only Premier League to have had the audacity to gatecrash in recent years were Everton, but they swiftly suffered the indignity of being chucked out before the group stages, when it was realised that they weren't popular with the type of ABC1 males that watch Sky Sports.

It was all threatening to become rather boring, but this season something miraculous has happened. Nobody actually wants to finish in fourth place.

Consider the evidence. Whilst Chelsea and United scrap it out for the league and Arsenal look destined for more non-trophy winning greatness, nobody is making a convincing attempt to finish fourth.

Traditionally, this would be the position where Liverpool finish if they have a bad season. Well they're certainly having a bad season, but are at risk of overdoing things to the extent where their badness leaves them adrift of even fourth place.

Defeat at Fulham was made worse by the fact that Fernando Torres limped off, to join Steven Gerrard on the sidelines. Without these two players Liverpool are very ordinary indeed and it is vital that they are fit if the team is to qualify for the Champions League. Liverpool are now [1.93] for a top four finish.

Rafa Benitez would no doubt make the argument that he's had no money to spend, ignoring the fact that he's wasted millions in the transfer market in recent years on players like Ryan Babel and Robbie Keane.

Speaking of Robbie Keane, he made a fool for himself and a rod for all Tottenham supporters' backs when he recently claimed that Spurs have an equally good squad as Arsenal.

What Tottenham actually have is a very good first team, who never get to all play together at once because at least five are always injured. Their replacements waiting on the bench are not actually quality players, but are instead merely expensive players who once played well for other teams.

Like Liverpool, Tottenham need the likes of Modric playing regularly this season if they're to challenge for the top four. Unlike Liverpool, they will have money to spend come January should they be still there or thereabouts. Spurs are [6.8] to qualify for the Champions League.

Manchester City are another team who will be shopping in the January sales, but will it be Mark Hughes doing the spending? The fact that they now occupy the fourth spot despite having drawn their last four league games, tells you how badly those around them are doing. City are [2.12] to retain their current top four berth.

Of the other contenders, Everton have started slowly and Villa now have a weaker looking squad than the one whose challenge to Arsenal fell apart last season.

When Burnley are only four points from that coveted Champions League place, then you know that there really is all to play for. That party invitation is well and truly, still up for grabs.

Tags: liverpool odds, manchester city odds, premier league betting, robbie keane, top four betting, top four odds, tottenham odds