Premier League Betting: Managerial overachievement and managerial underachievement

Football Food For Thought / Tareq Quiroz / 04 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

TQ looks at why Harry Redknapp never seems to be out of work and whether the dismissal of Paul Ince at Blackburn early on in the season was a fair one.

It never fails to surprise me just how tight a finish to a season can be after a full ten months of battle. The scenes at the end of the Football League season at the weekend were as dramatic as ever. Promotion, relegation and play-off places were at stake all over the place and it was great to see such joy and heartbreak in equal measure.

The season end quite naturally brings each team to assess their season and what they need to do going forward. The subject nearly always at the top of the agenda for a team not performing is whether or not to get rid of the manager. That is totally understandable for me as if you are not doing your job well then you must always expect the boot but at the same time have the brains to give a good one the time he needs.

To keep a team in the Premier League you do not have to be that great a manager. Certainly a good manager helps but if you have the right players then the job does itself. If you are short on top quality players then that is when your managerial skills come to the fore. For me, Tony Pulis must be close to manager of the year with his efforts to steer Stoke to safety. There isn't a single player in their squad that any team in the top half would want in theirs yet they get the results they need.

Managers should live and die by their results. It will be very interesting to see if Gareth Southgate gets the boot if Boro get relegated. He hasn't produced the goods and as well as he comes across on the touchline and in front of the cameras, that really doesn't help with the league table. This is a Boro team that are now as short as [1.27] in the Relegation market. He has had ample opportunity to sort them out and cannot complain about lack of support or quality of players. Southgate needs to go but when he does it will be interesting just where he turns up next. If I was him I would head off to be a pundit but don't be surprised to see him high up in the market for the next managerial vacancy.

I am tired of seeing the same names on Betfair's Next Manager markets. Building a successful team takes time and patience. If you are given that and fail then you should be sacked and at the very least go down a division or two. It is too convenient for clubs to appoint managers in the public eye. We have to remember that success is relative and although I think that the likes of Allardyce and Bruce are no better than average managers, Bolton and Wigan respectively can't complain with what they achieved under them.

I have less time for the likes of Harry Redknapp. He puts himself in the media spotlight and as a result he is always linked with decent jobs. He is a very astute man but clearly only takes on jobs that suit him. I have no doubt he has good coaching ability and can spot a good footballer but he wouldn't be the man I would turn to for success. When Spurs fail to deliver no better than just above mid-table next season he will once again be in line for the boot but you can rest assured some other deluded club will snap him up.

Largely I don't blame the managers as they are just looking for work but some clubs need to take a real hard look at themselves. It is astonishing how few clubs know how to deal with over-achievement. It is classic for a new manager to come in and make a difference. Often this is just for a few games but it is just as likely that the manager will have one or even two good seasons that are nothing more than over-achievement for the players they have. This season in two different ways we have seen two bright young managers get the boot.

Paul Ince did his apprenticeship in the lower leagues and is clearly a good manager. Blackburn however finished far higher than they had a right to the season prior and expectations were set for an ever better year. Ince was on a hiding to nothing and eventually got the sack. I hope he is back soon as I am sure he will turn out to be a more successful manager than Allardyce.
Roy Keane was also rudely dispatched from his position as Sunderland manager.

Again the club had eyes bigger than their bellies following two very good seasons under Keane. Instant promotion followed by a good first season in the Premier League and you would think he would be forgiven a poor start. Not so and he too was put under pressure and chose to resign. Ipswich are the beneficiaries and I would not be surprised to see them in the play-offs next season. Whilst Sunderland under a new and not improved manager are trading at [4.2] to be relegated with three games to go.

Wenger over-achieved at Arsenal with a flying start but can you see previous incumbent Bruce Rioch leading them to where they are now? In many ways Ferguson did the same with Man Utd after a very rocky start. Allardyce certainly did with Bolton and O'Neill did it for most of this season with Villa. Give a manager who has shown some signs of improving the team time and he will deliver the goods. This is why Man Utd and Arsenal are [2.88] and [9.6] respectively in the Champions League winner market and just one game away from the final.