Premier League Bets: Paying the penalty for spot-kick nerves

Football Food For Thought / Tareq Quiroz / 16 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

As the Champions League reaches the business end of proceedings, Cup finals are played and every goal counts, Tareq Quiroz looks at the importance of holding your nerve when it comes to scoring from the spot.

We are at that time of the season when barely a week goes by without something pivotal occurring in the world of football. It all happens so quickly that even the amazing events of last week's Champions League are now a slightly distant memory. I can confirm for those of you who thought it may have been a dream that Liverpool did indeed smash four past Real Madrid and Man Utd in the space of just five days.

If Liverpool's week was something out of this world then Arsenal's wasn't too bad either. They followed up progress to the Champions League quarter-finals with a resounding league win at the weekend. Of all the Champions League ties, theirs had the most dramatic ending as the outcome was decided by a penalty shootout. You have to be in it to win it and at the last eight stage of the tournament Arsenal now have a very real chance. They may represent some value in the Winner market where they are trading at [12.5].

Doubters will say that they scraped past Roma but for me winning courtesy of a shootout is a potentially valuable experience. The drama behind a penalty shootout is truly amazing as you genuinely don't know who will come out on top. Most people would surely have had Eduardo to score, yet his pen was pretty poor. If his effort wasn't up to scratch then Roma's Mirko Vucinic's attempt was nothing short of shocking. Almunia couldn't believe his luck as the Roma man dribbled his effort straight down the middle. That really was a shocker, but pressure really does get to the best.

Statistical research from previous years has shown that the lowest percent of penalties converted from all major competitions actually comes in the World Cup. Whilst quite notably league conversions are amongst the best. That is a clear sign that the pressure of an occasion is a huge contributing factor in the success of a penalty. Recent years show a trend for some teams to handle that pressure better than others so needless to say that should World Cup 2010 come down to a penalty shootout, then it is Germany you want to be on. They are currently an attractive looking [15] in the World Cup winner market for those who want to get on early.

From here on in we will undoubtedly be faced with plenty of penalty shootouts before the season is over. With that in mind, it is worth preparing yourself for Betfair's revolutionary Next Penalty markets. In all the in-play matches that go to a penalty shootout, you can bet on whether each individual penalty taker will score or not. You have until the player strikes the ball to get your bet matched and boy do we see some price fluctuations based on who that player is. In general you can expect to see the odds of the penalty being scored being around [1.35], and as a layer you will always get some action. Watch out for these markets over the next couple of months and don't forget the more pressure there is the more chance there is the player will miss it....just ask John Terry.

There is most definitely an art to taking a penalty and either you have it, or you don't. The most important thing in my opinion is to have a few different types up your sleeve. We all love to see those pens where the player strolls up and waits for the goalkeeper to make his move before stroking the ball into the opposite side. They are great on the eye but eventually you will come unstuck and then what do you do? Yakubu is a good example of someone who looks great when he takes one of those and it comes off but once he was rumbled playing for Boro, he missed two in one game.

Theo Walcott somewhat surprisingly claimed this week that one of the best penalty takers he had ever seen was James Beattie, who he knew from his time at Southampton. Whilst I have no issue with Beattie's record, the man with the best record in rest times has to be the daddy of all Saints legends, Matt Le Tissier. The Southampton genius scored an incredible 47 of 48 attempted penalties. I find it amazing that Southampton were awarded that many pens in his career but the conversion rate is only to be admired.

Nowadays it is tough to find many Premier League players you would have that "never going to miss" feeling about. I like a player who is going to smash it good and hard. Frank Lampard comes into that category. He is certainly a man to be confident in, as are the likes of Barry, Arteta and Gerrard. Of the aforementioned players it is only Lampard who may take another penalty in this year's FA Cup. If Chelsea get to another penalty shootout then I will be backing Frank to score but I may just hold my bets if I see the trembling figure of John Terry placing the ball on the spot...