Football Betting Briefing April 27-May 1: Crunch time cometh!

Football Food For Thought / James Eastham / 26 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

From relegation dogfights to European glory there's so much to play for across Europe this week, according to James Eastham.

Monday April 27

Anyone noticed an improvement at Newcastle United since Alan Shearer became boss?

No, me neither - and if they fail to beat Portsmouth, the [1.92] available on the Magpies to go down at the time of writing will shorten dramatically. Shearer has put great store by Newcastle winning their remaining three home games, which is odd, given they've won only four of 16 fixtures at St James' Park. The draw at [3.8] is the smart option.

Tuesday April 28

Barcelona meet Chelsea in the latest chapter of a Champions League saga that's provided entertainment and drama down the years: Lionel Messi's corner flag antics that resulted in Chelsea's forgotten left-back Assier Del Horno's sending off, Ronaldinho's goal and Ricardo Carvalho's sneaky shove all come to mind.

Josep Guardiola's Catalans are [1.6] favourites to reach the final, with Guus Hiddink's west Londoners [2.62] outsiders. At those prices I'd be backing Chelsea, but there are other, more attractive markets on the night.

Barcelona to lead at half-time will be a popular wager, since the Catalans racked up 4-1 and 4-0 advantages against Lyon and Bayern Munich respectively in the last two rounds. On the back of those performances, [2.16] to lead at the interval is an appealing price. But over 2.5 goals ([1.9]) looks an even better bet, as seven of Barca's 10 games in the competition have had 2.5 goals, while Chelsea's last two away games, at Juventus and Liverpool, have featured four goals each.

Wednesday April 29

Holders Manchester United are bidding to become the first team since AC Milan in 1990 to retain Europe's premier trophy - and the market suggests they're a good thing to get the first half of the job done by knocking out Arsenal.

United are [1.63] to reach the final, with the Gunners [2.5], although the relative performances of the two sides in recent weeks suggest Arsene Wenger's north Londoners are undervalued. Arsenal are unbeaten in 20 league games (11 wins, nine draws) and showed maturity to defeat Villarreal in the quarter-finals while United's defending remains a weakness despite their excellent display in Porto a fortnight ago. Laying the Man Utd Clean Sheet or backing a draw at Old Trafford at [3.65] are worth considering.

Rennes v Bordeaux was postponed at the weekend because Bordeaux were busy thrashing Ligue 2 side Vannes 4-0 in France's Coupe de la Ligue final - but les Girondins will be firmly focused as they're competing to win their first Ligue 1 title in a decade. Laurent Blanc's visitors look decent value at [2.5] away to hosts with nothing to play for.

Thursday April 30

The Uefa Cup final will be a German-Ukrainian affair this season - but which sides will contest the final in Istanbul on May 20? Tournament favourites Werder Bremen look too short to lift the trophy at [3.2], particularly as they have to negotiate a tricky semi-final against Bundesliga rivals Hamburg. Werder are [1.81] to get through but Martin Jol's Hamburg have the advantage of playing the second leg at home and will be confident of scoring at least once at Werder's Weserstadion this week. It's no surprise to find over 2.5 goals as short as [1.7] in a match between two attack-minded teams.

Dinamo Kiev's nine-point lead over Shakhtar Donetsk in the Ukrainian League has done little to dampen the enthusiasm of Shakhtar backers. At [2.04], Mirceu Lucescu's side are only marginally bigger than Kiev [1.92] to get through - and the sides are impossible to separate in the outright market, at [4.6] each.

Friday May 1

More prosaic league action takes centre stage to start the weekend - the winners of Bochum v Hannover will be virtually assured of Bundesliga safety when the sides meet at Bochum's Ruhrstadion.