Football Bets: Everyone is trying to play mind games but it's Moyes who's coming out on top

Football Food For Thought / Richard Walker / 20 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ralph Ellis looks at the importance of mental strength, belief and the ability to play mind games. As the likes of Phil Brown is saying the wrong things and Shearer is over-thinking things, David Moyes managed to beat Sir Alex at his own game.

For as many years as I can remember, Sir Alex Ferguson has been undisputed master of the mind games. He started out tangling with Kenny Dalglish when Liverpool were the kings of English football, he honed up his skills against Arsene Wenger, and he even messed with Jose Mourinho.

But this season something very strange has happened. Fergie has found himself on the opposite end of the game and he hasn't liked it one bit. In the Premier League he's had Rafa Benitez chipping away, telling the world how the referees favour Manchester United. And now David Moyes has pulled off exactly the same stroke.

Everton's boss came up with a dazzling bit of pre-match psychology to get at referee Mike Riley before the Wembley FA Cup semi-final. "A journalist asked me if Riley was a United fan but I said you'd have to ask the FA about that," he claimed.

Now I spend my life on the circuit with other reporters, it's a small world full of gossip, and nobody can tell me who the journalist who asked that question was. I suspect he didn't exist. But in telling that tale, Moyes brilliantly raised the question over Riley's record of awarding 17 penalties in United's favour and made sure he'd worry about giving another 50-50 decision for Fergie. So when Phil Jagielka sent Danny Welbeck tumbling and Riley wasn't sure, he waved play on. "The referee shouldn't have been influenced by that," claimed Moyes full of innocence afterwards. But he must have then gone back to the dressing room and laughed his socks off.

In one day Moyes had proved he's got what it takes to mix it with the big boys, and odds of [3.0] for his team to go on and win the FA Cup look rather tempting. He's proved he can prepare a team for the big occasion, and it's also no surprise he's come in to [5.9] in the betting to be Sir Alex's successor as Old Trafford boss as well.

It's easy to dismiss the mind games as a media invention to fill up the back pages, but Brian Clough used to say that the most important distance in football was the few inches between a player's ears. And as in many things, he wasn't wrong. In these last few critical weeks of the season trophies and relegation fights are won and lost in minds and hearts.

At Chelsea, Guus Hiddink has found a way to get into Didier Drogba's head and inspire him again, and when he's on song there can be no more terrifying opponent for any defender. He bullied Arsenal in the other semi-final and if Chelsea are going to figure in the Premier League title race now then he will be the key. Hiddink's men are a tasty [18.5] to lift the title despite sitting only four points off the top with six games left, and with the best goal difference. Okay it's a punt, but while Liverpool and United squabble with each other it's a tasty one.

Back in the battle for survival, one man who is messing up big time at the mind games is Hull boss Phil Brown. A man who began the season talking too much about himself, he's now talking about other people and it's not helping one bit. Coming out in Saturday morning's papers claiming Sunderland had wasted money on Anton Ferdinand and a few others was a schoolboy error. Ricky Sbragia simply stuck the cuttings up around the dressing room to fire up his players and they won 1-0. Hull, with Liverpool, Villa and Manchester United among their five remaining games, have to be backed at [2.44] to go down before they go odds on. You can't see them getting anything from Stoke or Bolton either and 34 points won't be enough for survival.

Newcastle's interim boss Alan Shearer is maybe thinking too much. He used three different formations in 90 minutes in the 1-0 defeat at Tottenham, where Harry Redknapp keeps everything so simple. Newcastle's future will now come down to the key three home games with Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Fulham and their cause is not lost, even though they are [1.74] for the drop. Significantly Mark Viduka returned as a second half sub at White Hart Lane and he has a record for inspiring late survival fights.

There was plenty more evidence of the power of positive thinking. Gianfranco Zola convinced West Ham's youngsters they could survive against an Aston Villa who have forgotten how to win, and they dug out a late equaliser for a 1-1 draw. And Mark Schwarzer took the chance with Fulham to remind Middlesbrough why getting a highly paid and experienced goalkeeper off your wage bill is a false economy in a 0-0 draw at The Riverside.

And of course there's Stoke, now certain to stay up and a generous [1.59] to win the handicap league which they started on plus 53 points. That's virtually free money because Tony Pulis won't let them rest easy for a moment between now and the end of the season.