Why not Imagine a Havant & Waterlooville upset?

FA Cup / Gary Boswell / 25 January 2008 / 1

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

Gary Boswell looks at some of this week's sporting events and historic FA Cup ties to explain why a Havant & Waterlooville upset might not be as ludicrous as it sounds

-Betfair's non-league guru THE BOZ argues the case for the upset in tomorrow's LIVERPOOL-HAVANT humdinger -

" What do the three dots mean, Pete? " asked the befuddled Dudley Moore.
" In the hands of the master craftsman, Neville Shute " replies the inimitable Peter Cook, " three dots represents an instruction to the reader - USE YOUR IMAGINATION!! "

Sometimes you gotta do that in betting. The guys who use it imagined a way for neither Roger Federer nor Raphael Nadal to make it to the Australian Open tennis final and made themselves a mint.

In this most remarkable of weeks for sporting upsets, it is very tempting to IMAGINE ( as the great John Lennon also urged us to do) the scenario of Havant & Waterlooville causing the biggest upset in the history of football and knocking the mighty Liverpool out of the FA Cup.

It can't happen (if it does, I've already won myself a season ticket to Fulham and a lifetime's supply of Teachers just for suggesting it!!) simply because the gulf in class between the two sides is too huge.

Yes, Newcastle and Coventry were scuppered in the old days but they were scuppered by pitches. West Brom, like Port Vale this season, were an out of form team when they lost to Woking - and Swansea?....Well yeh, Swansea were only a League One team, not the cream of the Premiership!

Swansea are top of League One and they failed to beat Havant & Waterloovillle not once, but twice! The first time, they played on a pitch not unlike Anfield and they should have been 5-0 up at half time. Thanks mainly to some inept finishing and the remarkable 'shrinking goalpost' shaman trick that the Havant defence have mastered, they weren't.

They did manage to get 1-0 up but then Havant evoked plan B - kick a few lumps out of the volatile Welshmen and let them self detruct for the last twenty minutes.

It worked.

Don't ask me what happened to Swansea when they went to Westleigh. By then, I think they had used their imagination. They'd worked out how they could lose on that pitch and they started to believe in their own demise. A confidence thing. How else could they be 3-0 down after half an hour? Then they looked sure to go in at half time 3-3 as class briefly reared its head but imagination got in the way again at the penalty spot and the great white Swan in the sky suddenly doubted his prowess and worked out how to miss.

The second half of that game was very similar to the first 45 minutes of the Liverpool-Luton game. When the shut down is being done well, the frustration for the superior opposition can become mind-numbing and whilst they are in it, the inferior side can always nick a goal. Liverpool-Luton was 5-0 in the end and it could be 10-0 in this game if Liverpool get an early goal and don't panic but I defy anyone to suggest that it is inconceivable for Liverpool not to win. Man U couldn't score against Burton or Exeter first go and for me, the real precedent in recent times is Middlesborough's 0-0 against Nuneaton when Hasselbaink and Viduka were multi-million pound men who couldn't put one past the part-timers.

So it doesn't actually require much imagination after all. There's plenty of precedent to think that a Lay at the amazing [1.02] that's been available on Betfair is not stupid.
I note that some [220] has also been matched on a Havant win which surely has to go in the history books if it lands.

And I've just seen it confirmed that Federer has also lost in straight sets in the Australian semis. How many of you out there, imagined that?????

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

Ian Lamont | 26 January 2008

After Havant's successes so far in the cup, imagining a 0-0 draw isn't too far fetched. Who would have given Exeter and Burton a chance of even that at Old Trafford in recent years? Betfair gives the chance to lay Liverpool for pennies for a decent payout. A fun bet, and nothing less than Havant deserve after being ignored by TV this year and overcharged for policing in years gone by against Millwall. On the flip side, a profit can pretty much be guaranteed by then hedging with backing over 2.5 or even 3.5 goals. C'mon Havant!