FA Cup Betting: Everton v Liverpool

Televised Match Previews / Alsy / 04 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's the final part of the Merseyside Derby trilogy and not much has changed since the first meeting: Everton still don't have any strikers and Liverpool appear to be the better side on paper. But Alister Morgan thinks this time that will come through in the result. Best bet: Liverpool to win in 90 minutes @ [2.32].

The January transfer deadline has thankfully passed and like Christmas day, some fans got a fantastic surprise while others received the equivalent of a Premiership lump of coal - there certainly has been a few interesting comings-and-goings on Merseyside. As the third Liverpool derby in as many weeks approaches, most the talk will focus on two strikers - one who arrived and one left.

Everton welcome Brazilian Jo into the fold after securing a loan deal for the £18m Manchester City striker. David Moyes pretty much has a fully-fit squad to choose from - as long as you count out every decent striker at the club. Yakubu, Saha and Vaughan remain long-term casualties but Anichebe is approaching full fitness and should make the bench.

Any Toffees hoping to catch Jo in action Wednesday night will be disappointed. The 21-year-old is cup-tied in the FA Cup after playing ten minutes as a substitute when Manchester City lost 3-0 to Nottingham Forrest in the 3rd round. Luckily Cahill and Fellaini have made a good fist of filling the void upfront in the absence of all the aforementioned injuries and despite minor knocks to Arteta and Cahill, I can't see either missing such a big game.

Rafa Benitez must be sick of playing Everton. Twice Moyes has thwarted his lofty ambitions securing two 1-1 draws at fortress Anfield. Liverpool enjoyed more possession and fielded superior assets in both games but Everton thoroughly deserved a share of the spoils with their stubborn refusal to entertain any notion of inferiority.

Once again Rafa has a full squad to choose from and the absconding of Mr Keane will not rankle too much despite costing Liverpool £8m for a mere six months work. The Irishman was not a complete disaster but whichever way you slice it, Steven Gerrard is simply better in the position of withdrawn striker.

Trying to predict any Benitez team is tough enough but for a local derby you have to assume that he will field a strong side. At this stage of the season maintaining a winning habit is more important than squad rotation.

Liverpool are slight favourites at [2.34] to win the match while Everton can be backed to win in 90 minutes at [3.8]. Liverpool are the favourites to progress at [1.62]; Everton are [2.46] to make the next round of a competition they haven't won since 1995.

Following their victory over Chelsea on Sunday, Liverpool will have their tails up and Liverpool's greater quality should win the match... assuming they learn to mark Tim Cahill from set pieces. Therein lies the problem for David Moyes. Everton's defence (superbly marshalled by Lescott and Jagielka) is every bit as miserly as Liverpool's but their attacking options pale in comparison. If Cahill, (with his head), or Arteta, (from a set-piece), fail to score then it's difficult to see who will. Jo should help ease the situation for the remainder of the season but sadly for Everton, not in this match.

Liverpool have a few more attacking options and, most importantly, the ability to retain the ball. Everton will be expected to attack more and I predict that Liverpool should win with their superior pace and power on the break. Along the way expect a fair few yellow cards and chants optimistically predicting a long jail term for Gerrard.

Earlier in the season Liverpool won 2-0 at Goodison in the Premiership but I think a single goal will be enough to see them through to the next round and a home tie against Doncaster or Aston Villa. Predicting a narrow Liverpool win, I'd also look to back 'under' 1.5 goals at [2.88] in the "Over/Under 1.5 goals market". These two teams know one another pretty well and with so many top defenders on the pitch I expect scoring opportunities to be few and far between. Despite a recent run of draws Liverpool have only lost once to domestic rivals this season - I suspect it will be third time lucky against their most enduring rivals.