FA Cup Betting: Derby County v Nottingham Forest

Televised Match Previews / Richard Walker / 21 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

It may not mean much to you, if you don't live in the East Midlands - however if you do, life along parts of the A52 will pretty much grind to a halt come quarter-to-eight this Friday evening, writes Richard Walker.

A capacity 33,000+ crowd packed out Derby County's Pride Park in early November for the first of what will now be at least three (and possibly four!) local derbies against Nottingham Forest.

First things first, make sure you get on Over 2.5 goals. Unders is favourite at [1.85] to back (and, I'm sure, holds greater statistical sway) but I fancy a thriller under the lights so back Overs at [2.16] and enjoy the action.

Who says the romance of the FA Cup is dead? Sure, there would be a massive gate if this was a league fixture but Setanta have selected it for live coverage. Could it be anything to do with the tie involving Forest's former Derby boss Billy Davies or perhaps the tie being steeped in links with the family Clough? Or a large handful of players who've represented both clubs during their career? With sub-plots like those, they'll expect both sides to be champing at the bit to get into each other.

Son of God Nigel got a first-hand feel of the task in hand when watching his new side sink to a 2-1 home defeat to QPR and will be under no illusions that the American-owned Rams have sunk below Forest in joining the scrap to avoid relegation from the Championship.

Talk of Derby's players being tired from Old Trafford on Tuesday is nonsense. If you can't raise yourself for a full-house local derby, you're not a professional footballer. True, those not involved heavily might be able to offer fresher legs later in this game but I think they'll lose to Forest, fair and square - and Clough isn't one to offer up excuses of any kind.

Billy Davies has had what's almost the customary adrenalin-fuelled start to a new manager's reign. Three straight wins, with no goals conceded, typifies the response a fresh approach often garners, but this charismatic Scot has already shown he has what it takes to make the best of the resources available. Success at Preston (relatively speaking) and Derby (promotion to the Premier League) marks him out as a manager to respect at this level.

And while I reckon Clough's considered approach will do the world of good for County, I can see Forest keeping their current flying form airborne. Back them at [3.05] to prevail. The other Match Odds see Derby [2.6] to back with The Draw at [3.4]. Even prices that show this match has nothing in it - except, for me, Forest's excellent recent results.

Draw/Forest is my Half-Time/Full-Time suggestion at [7.8] to support. I reckon the first-half will pass in the blink of an eye, before the away side get their noses in front. Draw/Derby [7.0], Derby/Derby [4.5] and Forest/Forest [5.4] are among other options you might prefer.

The goalscoring market is hard going for a tie like this. Best played not long before kick-off on the day, I'd be tempted to include Derby's ex-Forest schemer Kris Commons as a To Score option - probably around [5.0]. For a First Goalscorer play, Forest's Rob Earnshaw (yes, ex-Derby!) is getting it together and anything about [7.5] would get me backing him to strike.

The 2-1 to Forest, an [11.5] shot, is where my Correct Score dough will be heading, with a cover - as I always suggest in this market - of 3-2 to the Trees [42.0]. Derby 1-0 is [10.0], 2-1 to the hosts is [11.5] while, if you fancy a replay, a 1-1 draw rates a [7.0] chance.

One last thing...do you really think there'll be 22 blokes on the pitch at 90 minutes? I don't. It's [4.0] to support a Sending-Off. Get involved - and enjoy the game!