Non-Televised Match Previews / Richard Walker / 13 January 2009 /

Richard Walker talks us through the best bets from two FA Cup replays and two postponed matches including a mouth-watering tie between Championship high-flyers Birmingham and Wolves and an all-Premiership clash between relegation candidates Hull City and Newcastle.

A mixture of replays and weather-hit initial ties make up an absorbing midweek's FA Cup action.

Here's a quick guide to four of the ties being played across this and tomorrow evening...

Peterborough United [2.98] v West Bromwich Albion [2.62], The Draw [3.5]

Hang on a minute; are you really telling me that Betfair layers are having trouble separating a League One side and a Premier League outfit for favourtism in this replay? Surely not. Okay, the Baggies are struggling but Tony Mowbray hasn't got the depth of squad to mess around too much with his line-up.

Taking the Albion to deflate the London Road faithful is the bet of Tuesday evening in my book. And my diet is a rich mix of all the divisions - before you accuse me of dismissing the Aaron McLean-Craig Mackail-Smith strikeforce at Posh boss Darren Ferguson's disposal.

Ace marksmen they may be - but, crucially, unproven against top-flight defenders (granted, out of form ones). Around 30 places separate the two clubs in the football pyramid, but those places really are millions of miles away effectively.

The two were paired together in last season's FA Cup and West Brom - then in the Championship - administered a 3-0 beating to last term's League Two runners-up. Not a massive amount has changed since then apart from, say, the confidence levels within both clubs.

Form and confidence can play a big part in this most wonderful of knock-out competitions but I can see Roman Bednar et al extinguishing hopes of an upset at what will be a buzzing London Road.

Recommendations:

Back West Brom to win to maximum stakes at [2.62]

Cover a couple of Correct Score options: 3-1 to West Brom at [26.0] and a 3-2 win for them at [38.0]

Take the [4.4] on offer about a West Brom/West Brom Half-Time/Full-Time scenario.

Histon [5.7] v Swansea City [1.79], The Draw [3.7]

One of the key factors about this tie for me is that the Swans were dumped out of last year's competition by non-league opposition in the shape of Havant & Waterlooville. Most of the players humiliated are still under Robert Martinez's tutelage and they will not want another large blot on their cup copybook.

So, for me, this goes down as an away win, albeit with their Cambridgeshire hosts - a village side less than a decade ago now riding high in the top-flight of the non-league pyramid - ending the night as the gallant, and probably narrow, losers.

A routine win at Grays just after Christmas aside, the hosts aren't in flying form right now but it's been that long since they've played they'll be itching to go. I could see the Glass World Stadium rocking to an early Stutes' goal but for the night to ultimately end in disappointment.

City will no doubt be looking to powerhouse front man Jason Scotland to seal the deal for Martinez who, as fate would have it, has only drawn non-league sides during his brief managerial career. However, I reckon Scotland's not a certain starter - perhaps a bench man if needed - so consider the threat of goalscoring midfielder Jordi Gomez. On loan from Espanyol (there's not too many of those in the Championship), he might have the extra guile to burst the bubble of hope for the men from the Fens.

Recommendations:

Try Histon/Swansea at [36.0] for a game of two halves, cover with Draw/Swansea [5.2] in case they avoid any major set-backs.

Get stuck into Over 2.5 goals. Surely there'll be thrills and spills at this tiny ground. It's [2.1] to back.
Back Jordi Gomez to figure on the scoresheet, either First Goalscorer or To Score (at any time).

Birmingham City [2.4] v Wolverhampton Wanderers [3.4], The Draw [3.45]

Arguments about promotion to the Premiership being the primary concern can be justifiably put forward from both camps here, since the pair make up two of the three teams who've cut loose atop the Championship right now. So that means there's no excuses for either side.

Add to that, neither side has had to endure a heavy schedule in the past week or so. The Blues' league game was off at the weekend so they haven't played since just after Christmas, while Wolves' surprise 3-1 home defeat to Preston at the weekend is their only game of this calendar year.

The Blues would arguably have the deeper squad at their disposal but I fancy neither side will be inclined towards anything other than a victory in this West Midlands derby.

Although Alex McCleish's side let very few in, they've not scored more than one in a match in any of their last five games. The pair met in late November at Molineux for league points and a lively encounter ended 1-1. I don't expect a glut of goals again but there just might be enough to spill Over the 2.5 threshold, since neither side would relish the prospect of a replay having had a first attempt postponed.

For a game that's hard to split, I can see Wolves taking this at what I'd consider a very decent price.

Recommendations:

Back Wolves to win at [3.35], or lay Birmingham to a [2.42] liability if you're not so sure
Back Over 2.5 goals at [2.16]
Back 2-1 to Wolves at [12.5], with a 2-2 cover at [18.0]

And on Wednesday night...

Newcastle United [1.95] v Hull City [4.3], The Draw [3.7]

Without question, this is a game neither of the two sides wanted. Twenty-thousand turned up at the KC Stadium to watch a goalless draw first time round, and who's to say it won't be just as even once again.

I'm a little surprised that the Mags are under evens against the Tigers, who themselves look a decent punt for those pre-disposed against Joe Kinnear's side, at odds bigger than three-to-one.

I can see the tie going all the way to extra-time and penalties - but not without incident and a goal or two.
Although take one ended nil-nil, I think both teams' desire to avoid an extra 30 minutes' play will be apparent. This replay might well lack the inhibitions of the first tie.

Recommendations:

Back The Draw at [3.7] or Lay Newcastle to a relatively modest [1.97] liability.
Have a go at both 2-2 [18.5] and 3-3 [85.0] in the Correct Score list.
Back Over 2.5 goals, [2.02], and consider the [3.65] on offer about Over 3.5 goals.

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