Non-Televised Match Previews / Ed Nicholson / 22 January 2009 /

Ed Nicholson has been crunching the numbers on goals scored in early FA Cup rounds and has found two matches where it could well pay to go with "unders". And he's not on a bad little run of form, you know...

Last weekend was another profitable one for followers of Ed's Under/Over 2.5 goals column. All four of his under/over recommendations were successful meaning that this football season he has now made 25.08pts profit (5% comm included) on 102.94 recommended stakes since August.

Those looking to play the under/over markets in the FA Cup, or any football competition for that matter, should understand that as the rounds go by, the average number of goals decreases significantly. And it's common sense - the further you progress in a cup competition the more difficult the game should become meaning fewer opportunities and so fewer goals.

Last season, for instance, from the quarter final stage of the FA Cup onwards six of the seven matches were under 2.5 goals events (87.5%), whereas in the 3rd round 53.1% of games were under 2.5 goals affairs. For an analysis of how FA Cup matches compare to league matches across the Premiership and Championship when it comes to how many end in "overs", read my colleague Andrew Atherley's piece on this topic.

But, odds compilers, market makers and exchange betting pros know this trend of goals drying up as the competition progresses only too well, and quite often a counter intuitive play on there being fewer goals can be a successful strategy to employ at the earlier stage of a cup competition between a Premier league side and a team a division or two below them.

Also, when a club from a lower division does play a team from a higher division it is the former that usually have the edge in terms of motivation. And if the tie is played at the lower ranking side's ground it brings the teams even closer together, making a low scoring contest even more likely.

I feel that this weekend's FA Cup fourth round fixture list provides us with a couple of decent opportunities to put this strategy to the test.

Torquay v Coventry

Torquay are currently 4th in the Blue Square Conference, while Coventry are in 13th place in the Championship.

Torquay have a relatively good record at home having won 50% of their matches at home and in the process they have kept seven clean sheets. Coventry meanwhile have a relatively poor away record having won just 28.6% of their games on the road.

Torquay's last three matches have all been under 2.5 goals contests, as indeed have their last three FA Cup matches. They also have a relatively poor offensive record this term netting just 22 goals in 14 home games, while they have conceded just 11 times.

Coventry meanwhile have only scored seven goals in their last seven competitive away games, and they have key injury problems ahead of this fixture.

In their latest home game Torquay managed just four shots on target (SOTs) and five shots off target (SOFFs), while they managed to restrict their opponents Wrexham to five SOTs and five SOFFs. Prior to that against Kidderminster Torquay managed ten SOTs - but interestingly only allowed their opponents one SOT and two SOFFs.

Coventry meanwhile only managed 2 SOTs at Loftus Road, two against Swansea and three at Watford. They are far from prolific away from home.

Recommendation

Torquay have never been further than the fourth round of the FA Cup and you can rest assured they will be concentrating on giving nothing away in the first 20 minutes, while Coventry may be a little apprehensive early doors too., all of which will help those wanting to trade the unders in running.

1pt Torquay v Coventry Under 2.5 goals @ [2.2]

Kettering v Fulham

I suggested going short on goals in Fulham's third round FA Cup contest at Sheffield Wednesday and we were undone in the 88th minute when Fulham, through Andy Johnson, scored a second to win the match. And now I repeat myself in the fourth round. Go under 2.5 goals in Fulham's FA Cup game, this time against Kettering.

Fulham are just not that good away from home - certainly at top level; but I fully admit they would normally be expected to score at least once and probably twice against a team four divisions below them. But Kettering will be playing this game as if it is their final, Fulham will play it as a mere stepping stone to better things, and some Cottagers players (and management) may even feel this match is an irritation.

Kettering have scored exactly one goal in eight of their 15 home games this season, scoring 21 goals in total. They have conceded just 13 times. Fulham though have only scored three goals away from home in the Premiership and five in total this season in all competitions! A twelfth minute goal from Fulham in the third round of the FA Cup three weeks ago helped those who backed the over 2.5 goals option that day, and as long as the away side don't score another early strike, I can see this being a low scoring contest.

Fulham did manage to get in on the act at Upton Park, but that fixture usually produces goals anyway and I can see this game being scrappy and tight. Fulham are without doubt the better side, have better players and should carve out more opportunities. But they may be happy just to get through and a 0-1 or 0-2. I will though have small saver on a 1-2 Fulham victory.

Recommendation

1pt Kettering v Fulham Under 2.5 goals @ [2.1]
0.15pt Kettering v Fulham Fulham 2-1 @ [9.6]

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