FA Cup / Frank Gregan / 24 January 2008 /

Frank Gregan takes a look at Middlesbrough's trip to Field Mill this weekend

I think Middlesbrough will win at Mansfield. What a prophesy, I've followed this game since the age of six and it took me five years of hard graft to gain my coaching badges culminating with the UEFA "A" license. I've studied football from every conceivable angle - supporter, coach, player, manager and scout and at the end of all this I feel confident in predicting that the team lying 13th in English football will win against the side lying 91st. A caravan with tarot cards awaits.

The beauty of this game however is its' ability to smack the cocky right between the eyes. My bullish opinion will be the source of ridicule on Sunday morning should the Boro high earners approach Field Mill with an attitude that is less than perfect. The biggest danger facing Gareth Southgate and his men is complacency.

Southgate will be stressing the importance of approaching the tie in the right manner but he has to take the lead. His team selection will set the tone. It is pointless harping on to the players about how important it is to progress in a competition that is already missing nine premier league clubs and then selecting a side consisting of youth and fringe players with a sprinkling of regulars down the spine. I think the manager knows this and I'd be very surprised if he didn't field a very strong side on Saturday. This represents a wonderful chance to reach the last sixteen which in turn means three games to Wembley.

The other point that he may have trouble getting across is the old banana skin cliché. I think he will already have used that one up when his side visited Bristol City in a real tester of a tie in the last round. They did well to survive there having to come from a goal behind to win 2-1. The players will be thinking that they came through that unscathed so surely Mansfield should hold no fears. That can lead to complacency and you can guarantee that the Stags will be looking to get in the faces of the Premier League side early on and exploit any lack of application.

Southgate will be telling them that a defeat at Bristol City would have been disappointing and hurtful, a defeat at Mansfield will be embarrassing and possibly a sackable offence. This is a banana skin, however, provided they are professional, it is a banana skin surrounded by traffic cones and a warning triangle, they really should not be stepping on it.

So it's Middlesbrough for me although not at the [1.43] currently available. I think that a 43% return on any investment is very generous but I've never been a fan of odds on betting. I love a big price, I work on the principle that nine or ten winners a season at good odds will show a profit. I'm still very much in the plus column and that is courtesy of some high price returns and again I'm scouring the markets for the value bet.

I think Boro are likely to keep a clean sheet and I am tempted at [2.14] but instead I intend to play the correct score market. I like the look of 0-2 at [7.4] but can't help thinking that if Boro play anywhere near their normal game they could get a fistful providing they are not wasteful in front of goal. That is a somewhat bold prediction when you consider that they have only scored eight goals in twelve away games in the league thus far. However, the calibre of defender that they face week in, week out is considerably better than those they will face on Saturday and I'm banking on the Boro strikers enjoying themselves. 0-3 at [12.0] looks like a wager that could be traded in play but I want a bet that I am able to sit back and roar over the winning line. I'm going for any other score at [7.6].

I just hope that when the players are topping up their potassium on the team coach that they make sure the skin of the banana lands firmly in the bin!

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