Manchester United v Chelsea

FA Cup / Editor / 16 May 2007 / Leave a Comment

Manchester United v Chelsea - FA Cup Final (Kick-0ff 3pm)

Wembley will be back in the FA Cup final spotlight for the first time since 2002 on Saturday when Manchester United and Chelsea each go in search of their own doubles in the biggest cup showdown so far of what has been an enthralling domestic season.

The two Premiership giants have been evenly matched all season, and Betfair punters are showing no signs of being able to split them in the outright market, where United just edge favouritism at 1.95 with Chelsea at 2.04 with plenty of back and lay money available on both outcomes.

Things are hardly different in the individual match odds market, where Jose Mourinho's side are narrow outsiders at 2.98, while Manchester United are favourites at 2.85 and the chances of a draw - and therefore extra-time - are shorter than for many regular league matches at 3.2, an indication of how close many recent finals have been.

These two sides have combined for 14 FA Cup final victories, but it is United who dominate as they go in search of their 12th trophy while Chelsea are stuck on three, although they are tied on two wins apiece over the last 11 seasons as the duo plus Liverpool and Arsenal have taken a complete stranglehold over the competition.

This will be the second FA Cup final between the teams, and Chelsea will want to forget the first one as they crashed to a 4-0 defeat in one of the most one-sided second-halves in recent history, when Eric Cantona scored twice and United went on to score all four of their goals in the final 30 minutes, a game in which only Ryan Giggs played in who will be in action as well this weekend.

However since then there have been dozens of games between United and the Blues, and the rivalry between the two has been developing rapidly over the last three seasons, with United finally ending Chelsea's grip on the Premiership two weekends ago, also rendering their most recent game useless in determining form ahead of this final.

The 0-0 Stamford Bridge draw was the second stalemate between the sides this season, and the fourth in their last nine meetings, which will give those getting involved on markets that pay out in the event of extra-time a little in the way of hope.

But considering the starting line-ups on show last Wednesday, it is tough to imagine more than about eight being involved from the start at Wembley, with most of them on Chelsea's side.

That fact goes to prove just how much the Blues have been stretched by injury as the season has reached its' end, with Michael Ballack, Andriy Shevchenko and Ricardo Carvalho the most influential of their players certain to miss out on the final. Mourinho has suggested he may even have to use keeper Hilario as an outfield substitute with only 15 fit professionals.

The only thing it may be worth taking from that game involves the disciplinary markets, as there were seven players booked at Stamford Bridge - the last four meetings between the teams have totalled 24 yellow cards so punters may find the booking odds market interesting where yellows count two points and red cards five - the nine points and above option may prove to be the busiest proposition.

The 'man in black' on Saturday will be Orpington's Steve Bennett, who has averaged 3.59 cards per game in the Premiership this season (92 yellow and five red in 27 matches), so expect action also in the bookings index market, where points are also awarded for bookings and red cards, but the market is 'buy and sell' rather than 'back or lay'.

Recent trends in matches between the sides would suggest Chelsea just about have the overall upper hand, with United having won only one of the last 10 encounters, a 1-0 success at Old Trafford in November of 2005.

But United did have the upper hand the last time the teams met in this competition as they claimed a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge thanks to two Dwight Yorke goals in the 1999-2000 season when they were just about at the height of their powers and Chelsea had never heard of Mourinho or Roman Abramovich.

And they will take great solace from the overall FA Cup record that sees them having only lost one of 10 fixtures - they have eight wins and just the one draw the same season of their Yorke-inspired replay victory mentioned above. Chelsea have also scored in only three of those 10 games, so interest in the Manchester United clean sheet market may pay dividends.

Total goals punters may also take an interest in the game as the last 10 meetings have included only 17 goals, with just three of the 10 reaching three, meaning lower-level over/under markets also could provide some value.

The Road to Wembley this season did not really start for Chelsea until the quarter-final against fierce London rivals Spurs, with Macclesfield, Nottingham Forest and Norwich not providing them with much of a challenge.

Spurs took the Blues to a replay - and really should have beaten them when taking a 3-1 lead at Stamford Bridge in the first game - and Chelsea also had troubles with Blackburn before claiming a 2-1 win in the semi-finals at Old Trafford, but they have been the big entertainers in the competition so far with a total of 26 goals in their six games.

For United things have been much tougher, as they have faced solely Premiership opposition in every round on their way to the final, only ever comfortably winning in the semi-final when they blew Watford away 4-1.

Before then Aston Villa and Portsmouth had both taken them close in 2-1 reverses, while Reading and Middlesbrough both forced replays before going out by the odd goal as well, so United should be well versed in the art of taking on difficult opposition in cup ties by now ahead of a final that could be one of the best in recent seasons.