FA Cup / Mike Norman / 17 March 2012 /

After an impressive performance in midweek and some high-scoring cup games at Anfield, Mike Norman firmly believes Liverpool will beat Stoke on Sunday, and probably without conceding a goal.

Liverpool v Stoke, KO: Sunday 16:00, Live on ITV1, Match Odds: Liverpool [1.46], Stoke [9.2], The Draw [5.0]

After three league defeats in a row, and most of the country starting to question Kenny Dalglish's big-price signings (if they weren't already), Liverpool put in a really impressive performance to beat Merseyside rivals Everton on Tuesday night.

I suppose many people will be posing the question that if they can beat an in-form Everton side so convincingly then why have Liverpool struggled on so many occasions against ordinary sides at Anfield this season?

Classed in that 'ordinary side' bracket, especially away from home, is Stoke City, who just two months ago frustrated Liverpool to earn a 0-0 draw at the home of the Carling Cup champions. BBC Sport Match Stats say that the Reds enjoyed 60% possession that day, had 18 shots at goal, and were awarded 11 corners to Stoke's one.

These stats appear typical of how Liverpool's games have gone at Anfield this season; they've just found it very difficult to put the ball into the net, hence why so many games have ended all-square.

Two men who won't be putting the ball into the net on Sunday are defenders Glen Johnson and Daniel Agger, both remain sidelined for the home side. Ricardo Fuller is suspended following his 'red mist' stamp at Stamford Bridge last week though Peter Crouch, a former Liverpool player, arguably would have been given the nod to start in attack anyway.

Match Odds

I hope Liverpool don't revert to pre-Everton performances as I really can't make a case for Stoke winning this tie. And I loathe backing 0-0 draws!

The omens are good for Liverpool backers however as Opta tell us some fascinating stats that firmly point in the home side's direction. First, Liverpool have won all four previous FA Cup ties against Stoke, and secondly, Opta tell us that the Potters have never won a top-flight game at Anfield in 49 attempts. Ok, this is a cup game, but Stoke haven't beaten Liverpool in one of those either (eight attempts)!

You won't get rich backing Liverpool at [1.46], and given their tendency to draw games on home soil this term then many will be happy to lay them, but in all honesty, I can't see beyond a victory for Dalglish's men.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Under 2.5 Goals is favourite in this market at [1.89] and at first glance that probably looks correct. Liverpool have been involved in just five (from 14) 'Over 2.5' games at home in the league this season whereas only half of Stoke's away games have gone this way. Add in the fact that I think Tony Pulis' men will struggle to score in this tie (see below) then you would probably think I'm firmly in the 'Unders' camp here. Not quite.

Liverpool in cup games have been a different animal to the Liverpool we've seen in the Premier League. They've already eliminated the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United, and Manchester City in cup competitions this season but more notably their 10 FA and Carling Cup games combined have produced a total of 37 goals at an average of 3.7 per game.

That average is even higher at Anfield, a staggering five goals per game in fact (20 goals in four games) so you can probably understand why I'm giving a big shout to Over 2.5 Goals at [2.1] here.

Liverpool Win to Nil

Admittedly, for my Over 2.5 Goals bet and the Yes option - available to back at [2.2] - in this market to be landed then Liverpool would have to secure at least a 3-0 victory. In that case, it might be worth dutching some Correct Score outcomes but I'll leave that decision to you.

The reason I fancy this wager is because Opta tell us that the Reds have kept seven clean sheets from their last eight sixth-round games at Anfield. On the flip side of that, the Potters have never kept a clean sheet in a FA Cup sixth-round tie. These stats just add confidence to how I believe this game will go; Liverpool to win comfortably without conceding a goal.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Liverpool Win to Nil @ [2.2]
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.1]
Back Liverpool to beat Stoke at [1.46]

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