FA Cup / Lee Dixon / 14 April 2012 /

Lee Dixon expects a tight affair when Tottenham and Chelsea meet in the weekend's second FA Cup semi-final at Wembley.

Tottenham v Chelsea, Sunday 18:00, live on ITV1, Match Odds: Tottenham [2.7], Chelsea [2.88], The Draw [3.5]

North London meets west London in north-west London - who will come out on top?
Spurs' season is threatening to go sour and a win here could just be what their season needs.

Equally, with Barcelona in the Champions League and a revitalised Newcastle getting in the way of a top-four bid, this competition could represent Chelsea's best chance of having a 'successful' season, though it will come as a poor second prize to Champions League qualification.

Match Odds/To Qualify

Like the Liverpool-Everton match the odds just seem the wrong way round here with Spurs the current favourites to win in 90 minutes at [2.7] and Chelsea available to back at [2.88]. Yes, Tottenham are above Chelsea in the table, but that has so much to do with their early season form and little to do with their current play.

Tottenham's west London rivals are picking up results in all competitions with the odd setback now and again but Spurs are really struggling. History is against Harry Redknapp's men, too - as Opta point out, Tottenham have lost their last five FA Cup semi-finals, and haven't the made the final of the competition since 1991. Once again, I favour the underdog in a second FA Cup semi-final, though it's hard to believe Chelsea fall into that category!

With so much at stake, this could be tight and I will play it safe by swerving the match odds and playing the 'To Qualify' market with a back of Chelsea at evens.

Under 2.5 Goals

The market's finding it hard to split overs and unders here and if pressed I lean towards the latter. FA Cup semis are notoriously tight, but throw in two good defences who fought out a 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge in March and I fancy this to be low-scoring once the final whistle is blown.

Half Time/Full Time

It would be no surprise were this to be level at the break and decided by a goal in the second 45. I already have Chelsea onside in the 'To Qualify' market at [2.0] but I'm happy to throw a few quid at Draw/Chelsea in the HT/FT market at [7.6].

Recommended Bets

3pts Back Chelsea To Qualify @ [2.0]
3pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.96]
1pt Back Draw/Chelsea HT/FT @ [7.6]

Michael Cox's Tactical View

Harry Redknapp has tried a few different systems in recent weeks, but I think he'll play two wingers in this game - Gareth Bale on the left, Aaron Lennon on the right - and tell them to stay high up and stretch the play. Bale's been given something of a free role in recent weeks, but against the bigger clubs tends to stay in his traditional position out wide, which should give Tottenham opportunities to win corners. I think they might also dominate possession - they've done so in both the Premier League fixtures against Chelsea this season - so I'll back Tottenham in the Corners Match Bet market at anything over [2.0].

Recommendation: Back Tottenham in Corners Match Bet at [2.0] or above

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