Histon to hold Notts County plus the other FA Cup shocks

FA Cup / Gary Boswell / 07 November 2007 / 3

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Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

LAY NUMBER ONE: NOTTS COUNTY at (1.7) or less

Ian McParland's arrival at Meadow Lane has buoyed the Magpies and the signing of Craig Lindfield looks to have solved scoring problems so that a better showing from County can be expected now than if this tie had taken place two months ago. Histon,however, are only fifteen places below in the footballing pyramid and are a side in tremendous form with an away record this season that shows just two defeats in nine - one against Crawley and one against Stevenage - both teams that could be expected to give Notts County a good game.

Histon are a confirmed cup side. They first came to my tracking attention in an FA Cup game at Redditch three seasons ago. They have jumped two leagues since those days and are acquitting themselves magnificently in the inaugural Blue Square Premier season. The wins against Oxford and Kidderminster make them well capable of taking a lacklustre County in a one off and whilst I concede that County are favourites, they are not (1.7) to win this. More like (2.3) or (2.4). The non-league team's chance is underestimated as ever. Watch Antonio Murray shake this lot in their black and white striped shoes!

LAY NUMBER TWO: YEOVIL at (2.4) or less

Not long ago this Live on the Beeb would have been the other way round and we'd be laying Torquay. The Gulls have taken no time at all to be embraced into the non-league family. Spearheaded by Conference stalwarts Tim Sills and Lee Phillips, they have embodied the passion and commitment you see at all levels of non-league football and they've been scoring bucketloads whilst the Glovers are having an indifferent year following their play-off agonies.

As part of my pre-season research for Betfair, I went to this fixture at Plainmoor which constituted the final summer friendly for each outfit. It ended 2-2 and the Gulls were in the early days of working out the strategies that have bagged them so many goals already this season. Most notably, they scored twice that day from corners taken by left back Kevin Nicholson and attacked by centre-backs Todd and Robertson. I've seen that working all season in the Blue Square Premier and it might be the thing Yeovil are most worried about. They might therefore ignore the threat posed by a vastly improved Zebroski, Sills and Phillips who are now combining with genuine gusto. Torquay are a great bet (you might consider playing the corners market seeing as Torquay top the Blue Square Premier corner stats) and remember to take the inplay price if they go one nil down early. They simply don't let silly things like conceding stop them as Oxford recently found out to their cost. Oxford were (1.08) to lay in that game at half time.

LAY NUMBER THREE:STOCKPORT at (1.4) or less

Steve Cordery's Staines are a genuine underdog and this really will be a shock but it's not a forlorn hope as Jim Gannon's Hatters have been unsettled by Anthony Elding's infamous antics (do I really have to do my best this week,gaffa?) and Staines play solid stuff with Shaun Allway a goalkeeper capable of heroics on his day.Striker Mark Nwokeji is also a rising talent and this has the smell of a shock about it more than any kind of reasoned punt.

LAY NUMBER FOUR:MANSFIELD at (1.58) or less

Steven King's Lewes promise a horror show for Nottinghamshire's Stags - a team on their way down to the Conference against a side on their way up. Next season, the twain may well meet in the league and you won't get this odds disparity then!

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(3)

Mike Robinson | 08 November 2007

Hi Boz,
I think you're being a bit optomistic about Histon's chances....county acquited themselves well at Barnet on Saturday
Ian Lamont | 08 November 2007

Having read your two pre-FA Cup weekend lay tactics, I completely agree that laying the favourites is the way to go - because of course you then have two chances out of three to win! It's regretable of course that while Betfair often allows better odds, you can still go down the regular bookies and think "I wish I could lay at those odds". One bookie has Yeovil at 10/11 - I'd lay at that price all day. It's going to be a tough Sunday for the Glovers. While their away form might be decent when they don't travel too far, it's been pretty unreliable generally for the past 18 months and Torquay are a free-scoring team on the up.
ferdy | 10 November 2007

Good call to Lay Stockport. I got them at 1.35. If you're right about Yeovil that'll put you in profit which can't be bad with less shocks around than usual. Told you, you were better at laying but fancy missing the lay on AFC Bournemouth!! Barrow fans'll never forgive you!