FA Cup / Gary Boswell / 29 November 2007 /

Non-League expert Gary Boswell talks us through this Saturday's bets as the FA Cup really comes to life

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

I keep getting this recurring nightmare. It's the FA Cup final at Wembley and an NFL quarterback suddenly picks up the ball and flings it 45 yards to where a confused opera singer is waiting to catch it before signing on the dotted line and agreeing to be the next England manager. I wake up sweating every night. The doctor says I've got to give up football for a while but he's forgetting that it's the second round of the FA Cup this weekend and Boswell's on a mission to show a profit in every round!

A real chance for a record number of non-league clubs to appear in the draw for the third round and the temptation is strong to play in all thirteen ties that feature non-league clubs and simply level stakes lay the favourites. To take the Harrogate Railway-Mansfield tie as an example, there's little point in form study because form study points clearly to a Mansfield win. As it did to a Harrogate Town and Droylsden win in the previous two rounds featuring the minnows from the Unibond North (and mid-table at that!). It will be the greatest FA Cup shock of all time if Chasetown, Horsham, Staines or Harrogate Railway make it to the 3rd Round draw but at the risk of being committed to an asylum (where I will be well looked after by several blood relatives!) - I don't find it difficult to envisage any one of them succeeding.

Staines were sensational for us against Stockport County in the last round and fully deserved this chance of rewriting the history books. Peterborough are a tall order with several ex non-league players on board who will be approaching the game without complacency but with a goalkeeper like Shaun Allway and a penalty-taking estate agent like Dave Sargeant (he reputedly has never missed one in a twenty year career) I'm gonna holler myself hoarse shouting home Staines.

The trouble with the policy of level stakes laying the favourites in league versus non-league this year is that the world is turning so much now that Burton Albion are actually shortest at [2.76] to knock out League two Barnet on Saturday. Also, despite my rose tinted desire to see thirteen non-league teams in the 3rd Round hat, you do still get the likes of Gainsborough 0 Hartlepool 6 and the second round is traditionally the hardest hurdle for the real non-league minnows to cross (having already exceeded expectations to get there) so I've decided to be brutal and narrow my recommendations down to two in the attempt to keep the Boswell profit in each round going:

SHOCK NUMBER ONE: Lay Swindon at around [1.65] against Forest Green. The Rovers management have been very cagey about their preparations for what promises to be a sizzling local derby. Ace striker Stuart Fleetwood has been rested and managerless Swindon will surely be fearing the fact that FGR made mincemeat of promotion chasing Rotherham in the last round. FGR are always capable of shipping a cartload at the back as they proved against Droylsden last week but irresistible themselves in front of goal. Swindon will need to be on their game and indeed hold their nerve and they can be confidently taken on at the price

SHOCK NUMBER TWO: Lay Bury at around [1.84] against Exeter. Not really much between these two sides and the prices would surely be more contracted if Exeter were showing the form that got them to the play-off final last season. They are not far off that this year whilst Caspar's Shakers do exactly that and were lucky to get past Workington in the last round. The Red's keeper had a last ten minute brain haemorrage and gifted Andy Bishop a hat-trick! Bury surely won't get that lucky again.

If they do, I'll be back at the doctors on Monday.

For more information about the FA Cup go to:

www.thefa.com

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