FA Cup / Richard Walker / 17 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Arsenal are hitting top form and Chelsea's heads are still spinning from conceding four in Europe. But Richard Walker is expecting a tight game at Wembley on Saturday. Best Bet: Back the draw @ [3.35].

Perhaps a sign of their times, Arsenal will be first-time visitors to the 'New Wembley' when they take on Chelsea in the first of this season's FA Cup semi-finals - looking to provide manager Arsene Wenger with his fifth victory in the grandest of all the world's knock-out competitions.

In their way is a Chelsea side whose heads might just have finished spinning from probably the best single Champions League match of all time on Tuesday night.

One less day to prepare for the Gunners; that'll be Wenger's excuse if they lose so he's got that in the bag already. But I reckon we'll be talking about extra-time on the day. Whether a cagey affair or a game as open as the vast Wembley playing surface, something's telling me to back The Draw for the 90 minute outcome. Priced at [3.35], it's a few ticks into good value country for me - unlike the [2.56] about Chelsea or [3.2] to support Arsenal.

Given I've mentioned extra-time, you might also indulge in the fun play of covering two selections in the Method of Victory list, only sighted of course on the occasion of big cup encounters. Arsenal Extra-Time and Chelsea Extra-Time are both around the [10.0] mark to back and might provide some supplementary income if The Draw is the outcome for you.

I also offer up the odds of [2.12] about Arsenal in the Draw NO BET section. If I hadn't got a big hunch for The Draw itself, I'd have a foot firmly down that route, such has been their recent form.

The biggest of the markets to offer the starkest of contrasts is undoubtedly the 2.5 goals section. A haven for big-stakes players who get stuck in both pre-game and in-running, Unders is at [1.74] to back with Overs a [2.3] chance. I can't make my mind up here I'm afraid. I can see why Unders is short but I don't have a distinctive style of game in my mind. Both sides are attack-minded so the [2.3] might just prove to be a spot of value - and an early goal might provide a chance to trade from a strong initial position.

One of the reasons behind this is Chelsea's recent wobbling at the back. Sure, it could all come good for them at the weekend with one of their ye-shall-not-pass style shut-outs. But I'm sorry, I can't ignore seven against in two matches. If nothing else, it's highlighted how they can be exposed and I expect Arsenal to get in at least once. So Lay those who would wish to back a Blues' clean sheet. Your liability will be roughly [3.0] and you may have to hold your nerve but stick with it.

Yes, the Gunners do have more injuries to contend with - keeper Manuel Almunia, Gael Clichy, William Gallas, Abou Diaby, Tomas Rosicky and Johann Djourou all definitely out - but a team that's lost just once in their last 25 games needs to be respected. That's not to paint Chelsea, themselves without Joe Cole and Paulo Ferreira, in poor form; simply to acknowledge the steely resolve and high quality Arsenal have applied to their work in an almost unnoticed fashion, such has been the acclaim of those above them in the Premier League.

Robin van Persie and Nicolas Anelka are this season's competiton's joint top goalscorer with four apiece and it probably pays to stick with trend in the Goalscoring markets. They will both rate around a [3.75] chance To Score at any time, with big-game marksman Frank Lampard and in-form Didier Drogba both at about [2.75]. The more graceful but no more effective Emmanuel Adebayor roughly [3.5] to back.

Play it sensible-ish or go for someone like Branislav Ivanovic. The Blues' defender seems to like scoring right now and can be supported at something like [13.0] to notch at any point. If you want a real outsider, Arsenal's Bacary Sagna will be touching [20.0] in this field.

Having admitted earlier that the 2.5 goals market was a bit beyond my resolving this time, the Correct Score options look just as daunting. I reckon, though, it might pay to split your stakes perhaps even across three scorelines, one of which a more fancy option. Take 3-2 Arsenal, for instance. You'll be backing at odds of [50.0] plus on that. The [7.0] favourite is 1-1 with 2-2 the one that stands out for me at roughly [20.0].

It'll be even, I reckon, even if not always tight. One to enjoy - especially if you can be a Betfair winner!