FA Cup Previews: Preston in danger of early exit

FA Cup / Alan Dudman / 10 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Southend boss Paul Sturrock pull off a cup upset this weekend?

"Preston can't keep clean sheets, they are making mistakes, but they can score; a recipe for goals (and the Overs markets)."

Alan Dudman takes a close look at three FA Cup first round ties featuring League One clubs, and he believes struggling Preston are the club in most danger of exiting the competition.

Halifax Town v Charlton, KO: Sunday 12:30, live on ITV1, Match Odds: Halifax Town [7.8], Charlton [1.48], The Draw [4.8]

Whatever happened to the Shaymen? For those that have forgotten (me being one of them), they are now plying their trade in the Blue Square North, and could be promotion contenders if they can push on from their mid-table pitch. Their place in the first round of the cup was secured with a dogged performance against fellow divisional rivals Solihull Moors.

TV games are often selected with the potential of an upset, but the way Charlton are going at the moment it would seem highly unlikely. Manager Chris Powell is building something at the Valley, as some of the recent performances have been devastating. Saturday's 5-2 battering of Preston was a first-half goal blitz, in which the Londoners ripped apart a decent side (admittedly out of form). The previous weekend's 4-0 win up at Hartlepool showed their resilience with a good defensively display against the high Pools ball, and they counter-attacked superbly.

Powell talks brilliantly after games, and as a former Addick he has got the club spirit back. A crowd of 17,486 flocked to see the Preston match, and they are a side with lots of momentum. Their away form is even better, picking up 22 points in the league. Charlton will look to get a hold of the game early and control the crowd's enthusiasm, then they can start to attack on the break to utilise their width to feed in-form duo Bradley Wright-Phillips and Yann Kermogant.

Back Charlton in Half Time market @ [2.0]
Back Charlton -1.0 on Asian Handicap @ [1.8]

Leyton Orient v Bromley, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Leyton Orient [1.3], Bromley [13.0], The Draw [6.0]

Orient were the cup kings of League One last season, with a breathtaking run in reaching the fifth round, only to be knocked out by Arsenal in the replay at the Emirates. Chairman Barry Hearn promised a trip to Las Vegas last year for their exploits, if they get knocked out early this time, it could be Bas Vegas (Basildon).

The Londoners have picked up their league form at the right time, although Saturday's 1-1 draw with Hartlepool was a game that got away. They were pummelled by the high ball and long-throws, but defended well, although their attack lacked quality in the final third. Teenage winger George Porter caught the eye, and his pace is electric. Teams at a lower level always struggle against proper pace, and Porter could be important here. They'll line up a 4-4-2 and left-back Charlie Daniels is available again after suspension.

Bromley - recruited by Betfair to model the first ever 'QR cuts' - have featured in plenty of Over 2.5 goals Games last month, and beat Dartford, Margate and Welling in their qualifying rounds to get here. I would chance a couple of quid on a trade at Bromley, and hopefully get out at around [8.0] to line up a free bet. Remember Orient had to take Droylesden to extra time last year (a match they bizarrely won 8-2). But the sensible play would be the Over 2.5 Goals option.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.6]
Back Both teams to Score @ [2.0]

Preston v Southend, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Preston [2.08], Southend [3.8], The Draw [3.8]

If there is one potential upset, this is the game the layers have obviously pinpointed. Preston have not won in eight, whilst shipping an alarming 23 goals. Manager Phil Brown is feeling the heat, and his beleaguered backline keep putting themselves under ridiculous pressure. They can't keep clean sheets, they are making mistakes, but they can score. A recipe for goals (and the Overs markets).

Southend are top of League Two, with plenty of away wins as well. They are nice and solid and are supervised by manager Paul Sturrock - a canny operator. Midfielder Jean-Paul Kalala protects the back four, and Sturrock has got this team to battle hard and an ability to fight. They also pass the ball fairly neatly.

There could be plenty of goals, and a game ripe for a cup upset.

Back Southend to beat Preston @ [3.8]
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.74]
Back 1-3 @ [38.0] and 2-3 @ [42.0] Correct Scores (to Southend)