FA Cup & League Two Betting Preview: Ruthless Vale raise their game

FA Cup / Ian Lamont / 26 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Port Vale's Louis Dodds will be keen to impress his boss in the FA Cup

"The value bet are the mighty Shots. The cautious should lay League One strugglers Tranmere at [2.1], but my team can cause a cup upset at [4.0]."

Ian Lamont reckons Port Vale's steel could see them cause an upset this weekend. Meanwhile, Torquay's League One opponents are there for the taking and our man is dreaming of the big-priced Shots triumph...

There are plenty of possible FA Cup second round upsets for League Two sides this weekend, starting with the thought that Port Vale might enjoy their home tie with Huddersfield Town, whose away form makes them very layable at [2.0].

Port Vale are certainly not flash, they just have a stubbornness under Micky Adams that makes them hard to beat. The Valiants drew again on Tuesday. They have one defeat in 13 - drawing eight - and you don't beat an gruelling side like Stevenage Borough in an FA Cup replay without the ability to unpick awkward customers.

Adams - who put all his team on the transfer list earlier this season - showed his ruthless side again on Tuesday, replacing key midfielder Louis Dodds after 30 minutes. It is a rare manager who substitutes in the first half. I see it as a brave and sensible one, who either realises he has made selection mistakes quickly or, in this case, sending a clear message that even the stalwarts are vulnerable if they underperform. Adams said Dodds was one of many who could have gone off and raged that his players "hid" - just when they were playing for places in the FA Cup. How often does that happen?

Huddersfield might have the likes of Jordan Rhodes and Lee Novak but defender John McCombe will have been fully briefed. What strikes me is Huddersfield's away form is shocking - one win in the last seven attempts.

Like Port Vale, Torquay seem to have been on a draw fest for ever and a day. Well, since late September, when eight out of 11 games in all competitions have ended level and only one in defeat.

Again the Betfair way - a lay - is the way to go on their opponents, League One Stockport at [2.0]. Many in League Two would fancy themselves against County. The hosts are there for the taking. Given Torquay's refusal to be beaten other than by one of the best in their division, Rotherham, of late, they could even land a [4.5] gamble.

Ignoring the 5-0 first round drubbing of Tooting, Stockport have shipped 14 goals at home in their last five league games. Nicky Wroe, Scott Rendell and the like from the Gulls will fancy their chances but with caution I recommend laying the hosts at [2.0].

The value bet are the mighty Shots - back on the radar with Kevin Dillon as new boss. Again, the cautious should lay League One strugglers Tranmere at [2.1], but you'll forgive me for dreaming that my team can cause a cup upset at [4.0].

On the rare occasions the reincarnated club have reached round two or three they have lost away to higher division teams. There could be few better chances for a change of luck. There is reason for optimism.

I habitually back any team for relegation that employs John Barnes as manager. The former England wing wizard has gone but, while Tranmere might think they had a confidence booster win over Southend on Tuesday night, tails must be even perkier at the Hampshire phoenix club after the most fortunate of underserved midweek wins over Northampton. If Scott Donnelly's passes can unpick the Rovers defence and the Shots can repeat last weekend's terrific defensive display at Notts County, they have every chance.

It is worth remembering there is a league fixture on Saturday. Macclesfield will be counting on three points against Grimsby. They should risk prized asset John Rooney - relegated to the bench recently to protect him for the January sales - for this one. Boss Keith Alexander has been promised funds, so there is an element of playing for places. The Mariners might have a new permanent manager, Neil Woods, but he is not fresh, having been caretaker. He fails my "new broom wins first game" criteria on that basis. Back the hosts at [2.16].

Ian's Best Weekend Bets

League Two

Best bet: Back Macclesfield at [2.16] to beat Grimsby

FA Cup

Lay Huddersfield at [2.0] away to Port Vale
Lay Stockport at [2.0] at home to Torquay
Value bet: Back Aldershot at [4.0] to win at Tranmere